检验消费增长的可预测性:来自中国的证据

Q4 Economics, Econometrics and Finance

Journal of economic development Pub Date : 2016-09-01 DOI:10.35866/caujed.2016.41.3.002

Liping Gao, Hyeongwoo Kim

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引用次数: 0

摘要

Chow(1985、2010、2011)利用中国的时间序列观测报告了永久性收入假说的间接证据。我们通过处理中国后经济改革时期(1978-2009)消费增长可预测性的直接证据，以及战后美国的数据进行比较，重新审视这一问题。我们的样本内分析为这两个国家的PIH提供了强有力的证据。样本外预测练习表明，消费变化是高度可预测的。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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Testing the Predictability of Consumption Growth: Evidence from China

Chow (1985, 2010, 2011) reports indirect evidence for the permanent income hypothesis using time series observations in China. We revisit this issue by addressing direct evidence of the predictability of consumption growth in China during the post-economic reform regime (1978-2009) as well as the postwar US data for comparison. Our in-sample analysis provides strong evidence against the PIH for both countries. Out-of-sample forecast exercises show that consumption changes are highly predictable.

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来源期刊

Journal of economic development Economics, Econometrics and Finance-Economics and Econometrics

CiteScore

0.70

自引率

0.00%

发文量

期刊介绍： The Journal of Economic Development (JED) promotes and encourages research that aim at economic development and growth by publishing papers of great scholarly merit on a wide range of topics and employing a wide range of approaches. JED welcomes both theoretical and empirical papers in the fields of economic development, economic growth, international trade and finance, labor economics, IO, social choice and political economics. JED also invites the economic analysis on the experiences of economic development in various dimensions from all the countries of the globe.