系数不稳定性对比率相关人口估计影响的新见解

Q3 Social Sciences

Journal of Economic and Social Measurement Pub Date : 2016-01-01 DOI:10.3233/JEM-160422

J. Tayman, David A. Swanson

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引用次数: 1

摘要

在这项研究中，我们检验了基于回归的比率相关方法，并提出了一些新的工具来评估系数不稳定性对总体估计误差的大小和影响。我们使用来自11个州的904个县的稳健样本，发现:(1)系数不稳定性不是人口估计回归模型的普遍误差来源，其影响小于通常的假设;(2)系数不稳定性与偏差无关，但会降低总体估计的精度，增加总体估计的分配误差;(3)不稳定系数对人口规模在2万人以下的县域影响最大。我们的研究结果表明，有关影响系数不稳定性的条件及其对估计误差的影响的信息可能会导致更有针对性和更有效的方法来改进从回归模型中开发的人口估计。

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New insights on the impact of coefficient instability on ratio-correlation population estimates

In this study we examine the regression-based ratio-correlation method and suggest some new tools for assessing the magnitude and impact of coefficient instability on population estimation errors. We use a robust sample of 904 counties from 11 states and find that: (1) coefficient instability is not a universal source of error in regression models for population estimation and its impact is less than commonly assumed; (2) coefficient instability is not related to bias, but it does decrease precision and increase the allocation error of population estimates; and (3) unstable coefficients have the greatest impact on counties under 20,000 in population size. Our findings suggest that information about the conditions that affect coefficient instability and its impact on estimation error might lead to more targeted and efficient approaches for improving population estimates developed from regression models.

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来源期刊

Journal of Economic and Social Measurement Social Sciences-Social Sciences (all)

CiteScore

1.60

自引率

0.00%

发文量

期刊介绍： The Journal of Economic and Social Measurement (JESM) is a quarterly journal that is concerned with the investigation of all aspects of production, distribution and use of economic and other societal statistical data, and with the use of computers in that context. JESM publishes articles that consider the statistical methodology of economic and social science measurements. It is concerned with the methods and problems of data distribution, including the design and implementation of data base systems and, more generally, computer software and hardware for distributing and accessing statistical data files. Its focus on computer software also includes the valuation of algorithms and their implementation, assessing the degree to which particular algorithms may yield more or less accurate computed results. It addresses the technical and even legal problems of the collection and use of data, legislation and administrative actions affecting government produced or distributed data files, and similar topics. The journal serves as a forum for the exchange of information and views between data producers and users. In addition, it considers the various uses to which statistical data may be put, particularly to the degree that these uses illustrate or affect the properties of the data. The data considered in JESM are usually economic or social, as mentioned, but this is not a requirement; the editorial policies of JESM do not place a priori restrictions upon the data that might be considered within individual articles. Furthermore, there are no limitations concerning the source of the data.