预测当前条件下农业企业的破产

N. Davydenko, L. Oliinyk, Konstantyn Orolohopulo
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摘要

本文致力于寻找在乌克兰当前条件下预测农业企业破产的最优、客观的模型。考虑了内生和外生因素对农业部门企业运作的影响。提请注意诊断农业企业财务状况的指标。确立了导致无利可图企业比例上升、农业企业财务活动指标恶化、为危机现象发展创造先决条件的主要原因。揭示了当前形势下农业企业生产成本上升的主要原因。强调通过企业实施反危机财务管理,及时识别财务危机的征兆,识别危机形势产生的原因。研究了确定破产概率积分指标的常用方法。重点介绍了在反危机财务管理过程中运用判别模型对企业退出财务危机进行快速诊断的方法。以乌克兰最大的农业企业- PRJSC“MHP”为例,在国外和国内判别分析方法的基础上,确定破产概率,即模型:Altman, Taffler,企业生存能力水平的确定,Tereshchenko, Matviychuk。注意使用盈利水平指标的判别分析模型和那些利润不是计算中的主要指标的模型。研究发现,并非所有的破产预测方法都显示出明确的计算结果,因为它们没有考虑到行业差异和特殊性。在研究的基础上,确定了最客观的农业企业破产预测模型是通用的、具体的O.Tereshchenko模型。实践证明,这些模型最客观地反映了影响被研究企业整体指标下降的原因。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
FORECASTING BANKRUPTCY OF AGRICULTURAL ENTERPRISES UNDER CURRENT CONDITIONS
This paper is dedicated to the finding out the optimal and objective models for predicting the bankruptcy of agricultural enterprises in the current conditions in Ukraine. The impact of endogenous and exogenous factors on the functioning of enterprises in the agricultural sector is considered. Attention is drawn to indicators of diagnostics of the financial condition of agricultural enterprises. The main reasons that led to the increase in the share of unprofitable enterprises, the deterioration of the indicators of the financial activity of agricultural enterprises and created the prerequisites for the development of crisis phenomena were established. The main reason for the increase in the production cost of agricultural enterprises in the current conditions has been revealed. Emphasis is placed on the importance of timely identification of a financial crisis’ signs and identification of a crisis situation causes through the implementation of anti-crisis financial management at enterprises. The most used methods of determining the integral indicator of the probability of bankruptcy were studied. Emphasis is placed on the use of discriminant models for rapid diagnostics of exiting the financial crisis of enterprises in the process of anti-crisis financial management. The probability of bankruptcy was determined based on the case of the largest agricultural enterprise in Ukraine - PRJSC "MHP" on the basis of foreign and domestic methods of discriminant analysis, namely, the models: Altman, Taffler, determination of the level of viability of the enterprise, Tereshchenko, Matviychuk. Attention is paid to models of discriminant analysis using indicators of profitability level and those where profit is not a primary indicator in calculations. It was found that not all bankruptcy forecasting methods show unequivocal calculations, because they do not take into account industry differences and peculiarities. Based on the research, it was determined that the most objective model for the bankruptcy forecasting of agricultural enterprises is the universal and specific O.Tereshchenko model. It has been proven that these models most objectively demonstrate the reasons that influenced the decrease in the integral indicator of the enterprise under study.
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