乌克兰葵花籽油市场:现状与挑战

O. Makarchuk
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引用次数: 1

摘要

本文旨在分析乌克兰葵花籽油市场的现状和面临的挑战。为了达到本文的目的,强调了农业的重要性,并对乌克兰葵花籽油市场进行了评估。葵花籽油市场的市场研究分为两个时期:(1)俄罗斯入侵乌克兰之前;(2)在乌克兰领土上的敌对行动期间。在敌对行动之前的这段时期,乌克兰葵花籽油生产的增长趋势和出口能力的增加。事实上,在2020/2021年,生产了501万吨葵花籽油,其中93%用于出口,占世界葵花籽油市场供应量的40%。同时乌克兰葵花籽油满足国内需求,即约占总产量的10%。自给率指标逐年提高,2020/2021年自给率达到9.61%。乌克兰的第二个时期可以通过问题来区分,由于敌对行动对葵花籽油市场造成负面影响,即由于港口封锁导致供应链中断;部分开采领土和持续的敌对行动,这减少了向日葵下的收获面积;提高葵花籽油生产投入要素价格;葵花籽和葵花籽油价格波动。因此,葵花产品的生产、出口、经济指标难以预测。考虑到乌克兰葵花籽油是面向出口的产品,因此国内市场的价格受到世界植物油市场价格的影响。本文对葵花籽油的短期价格进行了预测。它显示价格上涨,到今年年底可能达到每吨1700美元。的确,尽管国家环境存在不确定性,但世界市场的积极趋势会给加工企业带来好处
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
SUNFLOWER OIL MARKET IN UKRAINE: STATE AND CHALLENGES
This paper aims to provide analysis of state and challenges of the sunflower oil market in Ukraine. To conduct purposes in the article, the significance of agriculture was highlighted and evaluation of Ukrainian sunflower oil market was done. Market research of sunflower oil market was divided on two periods: (1) before the russian invasion to Ukraine; (2) the period of the hostilities on the Ukrainian territory. The period until hostilities characterizes by growing tendency of sunflower oil production in Ukraine and increase of export capacities. Indeed, in 2020/2021 MY 5010 thousand t of sunflower oil was produced, where 93% was exported that is 40% on the world supply of sunflower oil on the market. At the same time Ukraine cover sunflower oil domestic needs, i.e. approximately 10% of total production. The indices of self-sufficiency ratio was increased each years and in 2020/2021 MY was equalled to 9.61%. The second period in Ukraine could be distinguish by problems, which negatively harm the sunflower oil market due to hostilities, i.e. disturbance of supply chains due to blocked ports; partially mined the territory and ongoing hostilities, which decrease harvested area under sunflower; increase prices of input factors for sunflower oil production; sunflower seeds and sunflower oil prices volatility. In turn, these lead to the situation, when sunflower products manufacturing, export and economic indices are unpredictable. Taking into account the fact that Ukrainian sunflower oil is export oriented product, accordingly on domestic market are influenced prices that formed at the world markets of vegetable oils. In the article the sunflower oil prices were forecasted for short time period. It showed price increase and at the end of the year could be reach to 1700 US dollar per tone. Indeed, positive trend on the world market will bring benefits for processing enterprises despite on uncertainty of country environment
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