战后乌克兰谷物市场的稳定

M. Ilchuk, I. Konoval, Mykola Vodnitskyi
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本文的目的是评估乌克兰粮食市场的现状,并证明在战后时期为稳定其稳定和提高粮食在世界市场上的竞争力而选择有效地区的方法是合理的。研究采用了以下方法:因子分析,确定各因素对粮食竞争力水平的影响;确定粮食产量变化的统计方法;气候技术实施范围和所需投资范围的计算和施工方法;在确定粮食作物温室气体排放量时进行预测;在形成结论时采用抽象的逻辑方法。会议确定,乌克兰粮食市场进一步发展的战略方向应有助于其稳定,并在战后时期提高粮食在世界市场上的竞争力,但须遵守《欧洲绿色协定》关于到2050年向气候中性循环经济过渡的要求。更广泛地使用气候技术(最少耕作、有机耕作、灌溉系统等),结合减少耕地的翻耕,将促进乌克兰粮食产量稳定在6500万至7000万吨的水平,并恢复土壤肥力。根据《巴黎协定》更新后的国家自主贡献指标对2030年粮食作物温室气体排放进行预测,并确定所需资金数额。拟议的战后乌克兰粮食市场稳定措施体系将确保市场供需平衡,协调市场参与者的利益,提高产品在世界市场上的竞争力,同时不损害土地资源的质量。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
STABILIZATION OF THE GRAIN MARKET IN UKRAINE DURING THE POST-WAR PERIOD
The purpose of the article is to assess the current state of the grain market in Ukraine and to justify approaches to choosing effective areas for its stabilization and increasing the competitiveness of grain on the world market in the post-war period. The following methods were used in the research: factor analysis to identify the influence of various factors on the level of grain competitiveness; the statistical method when determining the variation in the volume of grain production; the calculation and construction method for calculating the areas of implementation of climate technologies and the scope of investment required; forecasting when determining the amount of greenhouse gas emissions for grain crops; the abstract logical method when formulating conclusions. It was established that the strategic orientation of further grain market development in Ukraine should contribute to its stabilization and increase in the grain competitiveness on the world market in the post-war period, subject to compliance with the requirements of the European Green Deal on the transition to a climate-neutral circular economy by 2050. The stabilization of the volume of grain production in Ukraine at the level of 65-70 million tons and the restoration of soil fertility will be facilitated by the wider use of climate technologies (minimum tillage, organic farming, irrigation systems, etc.) in combination with the reduction of plowing-up of agricultural lands. The forecast of greenhouse gas emissions for grain crops for 2030 was performed in accordance with the indicators of the Updated Nationally Determined Contribution to the Paris Agreement, and the amount of required funding was determined. The proposed system of measures to stabilize the grain market in Ukraine in the post-war period will ensure market balance between supply and demand, coordination of the interests of players on this market, and increase the competitiveness of products on the world market without deteriorating the quality of land resources.
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