Bioclimatic modeling of Avenella flexuosa (L.) Drejer distribution in connection with its possible polemochoral origin on the territory of Central Russia

For the first time, the method of bioclimatic modeling was used to determine the boundaries of the range of occurrence of a potential polemochoral species Avenella flexuosa (L.) Drejer. The simulation was performed by the method of maximum entropy (MaxEnt). It is shown that the conditions for the growth of this species are initially suitable (the probability of finding 0.54 and higher) in the territory of Central Russia. For comparison, the same bioclimatic modeling approach was applied for the occurrence data of Carex brizoides L. species, the polemochoral origin of which is not in doubt. It is shown that its growing places are beyond the limits of the climatic optimum (the probability of finding 0.08) in the territory of Central Russia.