{"title":"达尔文的逆向选择","authors":"Wolfgang Kuhle","doi":"10.3233/AF-160056","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"We develop a model to study the role of rationality in economics and biology. The model's agents differ continuously in their ability to make rational choices. The agents' objective is to ensure their individual survival over time or, equivalently, to maximize profits. In equilibrium, however, rational agents who maximize their objective survival probability are, individually and collectively, eliminated by the forces of competition. Instead of rationality, there emerges a unique distribution of irrational players who are individually not fit for the struggle of survival. The selection of irrational players over rational ones relies on the fact that all rational players coordinate on the same optimal action, which leaves them collectively undiversified and thus vulnerable to aggregate risks.","PeriodicalId":42207,"journal":{"name":"Algorithmic Finance","volume":"5 1","pages":"31-36"},"PeriodicalIF":0.3000,"publicationDate":"2015-07-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.3233/AF-160056","citationCount":"2","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Darwinian adverse selection\",\"authors\":\"Wolfgang Kuhle\",\"doi\":\"10.3233/AF-160056\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"We develop a model to study the role of rationality in economics and biology. The model's agents differ continuously in their ability to make rational choices. The agents' objective is to ensure their individual survival over time or, equivalently, to maximize profits. In equilibrium, however, rational agents who maximize their objective survival probability are, individually and collectively, eliminated by the forces of competition. Instead of rationality, there emerges a unique distribution of irrational players who are individually not fit for the struggle of survival. The selection of irrational players over rational ones relies on the fact that all rational players coordinate on the same optimal action, which leaves them collectively undiversified and thus vulnerable to aggregate risks.\",\"PeriodicalId\":42207,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Algorithmic Finance\",\"volume\":\"5 1\",\"pages\":\"31-36\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.3000,\"publicationDate\":\"2015-07-14\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.3233/AF-160056\",\"citationCount\":\"2\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Algorithmic Finance\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.3233/AF-160056\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q4\",\"JCRName\":\"BUSINESS, FINANCE\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Algorithmic Finance","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.3233/AF-160056","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q4","JCRName":"BUSINESS, FINANCE","Score":null,"Total":0}
We develop a model to study the role of rationality in economics and biology. The model's agents differ continuously in their ability to make rational choices. The agents' objective is to ensure their individual survival over time or, equivalently, to maximize profits. In equilibrium, however, rational agents who maximize their objective survival probability are, individually and collectively, eliminated by the forces of competition. Instead of rationality, there emerges a unique distribution of irrational players who are individually not fit for the struggle of survival. The selection of irrational players over rational ones relies on the fact that all rational players coordinate on the same optimal action, which leaves them collectively undiversified and thus vulnerable to aggregate risks.
期刊介绍:
Algorithmic Finance is both a nascent field of study and a new high-quality academic research journal that seeks to bridge computer science and finance. It covers such applications as: High frequency and algorithmic trading Statistical arbitrage strategies Momentum and other algorithmic portfolio management Machine learning and computational financial intelligence Agent-based finance Complexity and market efficiency Algorithmic analysis of derivatives valuation Behavioral finance and investor heuristics and algorithms Applications of quantum computation to finance News analytics and automated textual analysis.