气候变化对亚洲流域降水和洪水影响的比较研究

IF 0.6 Q4 WATER RESOURCES
Y. Iwami, A. Hasegawa, Mamoru Miyamoto, S. Kudo, Y. Yamazaki, T. Ushiyama, T. Koike
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引用次数: 13

摘要

由于许多与水有关的灾害在世界各地频繁发生,正确评估未来气候变化对洪涝和干旱的影响至关重要。在本研究中,我们重点研究了流域尺度的气候变化影响评估,作为研究基于水资源综合管理的适应措施的必要信息。利用气象研究所-大气环流模式(MRI-AGCM) 3.2S (20 km栅格超高分辨率模式)和一系列模拟方法进行气候变化分析。以亚洲季风区5个目标流域为研究对象,对未来干湿季节降水、洪流量和淹没变化进行了对比研究。我们发现,本研究中高分辨率模式的区域降水输出在干湿季风季节变化趋势点上与国际气候变化专门委员会(IPCC, 2013)第一工作组(WG1)第五次评估报告(AR5)中的区域降水分析一致。这项研究表明,所提出的方法可以使更详细的描述气候变化成为可能。该研究还发现了流域尺度径流和淹没分析的重要性,特别是对于洪水发生时间较短的流域,这表明一般环流模式(GCM)输出(如流域最大5天降水指数)的洪水变化与降水变化之间存在潜在差异。因此,本文从河流管理的角度考虑流域特征,确认了流域尺度流量和淹没分析对气候变化的重要性。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Comparative study on climate change impact on precipitation and floods in Asian river basins
As many water related disasters occur frequently around the world, proper assessment of future climate change impact on floods and droughts is essential. In this study, we focused on basin-scale climate change impact assessment as necessary information for studying adaptation measures on the basis of integrated water resources management. We used Meteorological Research Institute-Atmospheric General Circulation Model (MRI-AGCM) 3.2S (20 km grid super high resolution model) and a series of simulation methods for climate change analysis. We conducted a comparative study on changes in precipitation, flood discharge and inundation in the future during the wet and dry seasons for five target river basins in the Asian monsoon area. We found that regional precipitation outputs from the high resolution model in this study were in good agreement in the point of tendency of their changes in wet and dry monsoon seasons with the regional precipitation analysis in the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of Working Group 1 (WG1) of the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2013). This study illustrated that the proposed methodology can make more detailed descriptions of climate change possible. The study also found the importance of basin-scale runoff and inundation analysis with downscaling especially for basins where floods occur for a short period, suggesting potential differences between flood change and precipitation change from General Circulation Model (GCM) outputs such as maximum 5-day precipitation index in a basin. As a result, this paper confirms the importance of basin-scale discharge and inundation analysis for climate change considering basin characteristics from the viewpoint of river management.
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来源期刊
CiteScore
1.90
自引率
18.20%
发文量
9
审稿时长
10 weeks
期刊介绍: Hydrological Research Letters (HRL) is an international and trans-disciplinary electronic online journal published jointly by Japan Society of Hydrology and Water Resources (JSHWR), Japanese Association of Groundwater Hydrology (JAGH), Japanese Association of Hydrological Sciences (JAHS), and Japanese Society of Physical Hydrology (JSPH), aiming at rapid exchange and outgoing of information in these fields. The purpose is to disseminate original research findings and develop debates on a wide range of investigations on hydrology and water resources to researchers, students and the public. It also publishes reviews of various fields on hydrology and water resources and other information of interest to scientists to encourage communication and utilization of the published results. The editors welcome contributions from authors throughout the world. The decision on acceptance of a submitted manuscript is made by the journal editors on the basis of suitability of subject matter to the scope of the journal, originality of the contribution, potential impacts on societies and scientific merit. Manuscripts submitted to HRL may cover all aspects of hydrology and water resources, including research on physical and biological sciences, engineering, and social and political sciences from the aspects of hydrology and water resources.
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