在不确定估计下客户端的持久性

Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance
Ana María Gil Lafuente, Mauricio Ortigosa Hernández
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引用次数: 0

摘要

市场营销研究了客户在企业中的持久性,因为它是研究客户价值(经济)的关键因素。他们开发的研究是基于确定性或随机模型,这允许估计客户端的持久性和CLV。然而,当由于没有该模型所需的面板数据而无法应用这些方案时,客户与企业的时间是不确定的数据。我们认为,当前工作的价值在于提供了一种利用不确定性理论固有的主观信息来估计时间周期的替代方法。为了实现上述目标,我们通过一个数值例子提出了一种方法,该方法在其第一阶段使用模糊德尔菲法,与一组专家一起完成对企业内客户生命周期的估计,以梯形模糊数表示,并在第二阶段获得对先前结果的更好共识,我们将这些信息提交给另一个不同于先前的小组。得到由初始梯形模糊数定义的区间大小的约简。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
The permanence of the client under uncertain estimations
Marketing has studied the permanence of a client within an enterprise because it is a key element in the study of the value (economic) of the client (CLV). The research that they have developed is based in deterministic or random models, which allowed estimating the permanence of the client, and the CLV. However, when it is not possible to apply these schemes for not having the panel data that this model requires, the period of time of a client with the enterprise is uncertain data. We consider that the value of the current work is to have an alternative way to estimate the period of time with subjective information proper of the theory of uncertainty. To achieve the above we propose, through a numerical example, a methodology that uses in its first phase the Fuzzy-Delphi method, with a group of experts, to accomplish an estimation of the lifetime period of the client within an enterprise, expressed as a trapezoidal fuzzy number, and to get a better consensus of the previous result, as a second phase, we submit such information to another group, different from the previous ones, obtaining a reduction of the size of the interval defined by the initial trapezoidal fuzzy number.
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来源期刊
Fuzzy Economic Review
Fuzzy Economic Review Economics, Econometrics and Finance-Economics and Econometrics
CiteScore
0.40
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