Türkiye’de Petrol Fiyatları ve Reel Döviz Kuru İlişkisinin Asimetrik Fourier Nedensellik Analizi ile İncelenmesi

Oil-importing developing countries such as Turkey may be adversely affected by the increase in oil prices, which can raise production costs and the overall level of consumer prices. Increases in oil prices in international markets may also adversely affect the foreign trade balance of oil-importing countries. In this study, annual data for the period 1960–2019 in Turkey are used to investigate asymmetric causality relationships between oil prices and real exchange rate variables. Causality relationships between oil prices and real exchange-rate series, and between positive and negative shocks of these series, are examined using the Fourier Toda–Yamamoto method. The results show no symmetric causality relationship between oil prices and real exchange rate variables. However, a one-way causality relationship is revealed from positive oil price shocks to positive real exchange rate shocks, indicating that an increase in oil prices causes an increase in the real exchange rate in Turkey. According to these results, asymmetric effects should be considered when examining the relationship between oil prices and exchange rates in Turkey. EXTENDED ABSTRACT Petroleum and petroleum products are vital for the continuous operation of economic operations in countries around the world. Petroleum products are also an important foreign trade commodity that generates considerable income for oil-exporting countries, as well as an imperative production input of significant expenditure for oil-importing countries. These two opposing effects also represent an essential export/import commodity subject to trade between countries. Export revenue from petroleum products in the international market and import expenditure for petroleum products are among the critical variables that determine countries’ macroeconomic performance. For this reason, in the face of sudden shocks in global markets (e.g., oil supply–demand and exchange rate shocks), countries may face adverse conditions, such as stagnant economic growth, decreased foreign trade, and inflation, which can have negative effects on national welfare. like dollar such