A Lower Bound Model for Multiple Record Systems Estimation with Heterogeneous Catchability

This work considers the estimation of the size N of a closed population using incomplete lists of its members. Capture histories are constructed by establishing the presence or the absence of each individual in all the lists available. Models for data featuring a heterogeneous catchability and list dependencies are considered. A log-linear model leading to a lower bound for the population size is derived for a known set of list dependencies and a latent catchability variable with an arbitrary distribution. This generalizes Chao’s lower bound to models with interactions. The proposed model can be used to carry out a search for important list interactions. It also provides diagnostic information about the nature of the underlying heterogeneity. Indeed, it is shown that the Poisson maximum likelihood estimator of N under a dichotomous latent class model does not exist for a particular set of LB models. Several distributions for the heterogeneous catchability are considered; they allow to investigate the sensitivity of the population size estimate to the model for the heterogeneous catchability.