Prospects for the Future

SUMMARY This paper explores the long-term prospects for airport development between now and the middle of the 21 st Century. It tries to identify both key issues and the range of probable outcomes. It draws on knowledge of the past, analysis of the future prospects, and an appreciation of the limits to extrapolation. It will be revised with the help of numerous experts in the field between now and Spring 2000. It suggests scenarios that need to be considered. Since specific predictions of future events are "always wrong" due to inevitable changes in circumstances, it is preferable to think about the range of probable developments rather than improbable specifics. Recognition of the possible eventualities enables strategic thinkers to build flexibility into their plans so that they can smoothly accommodate to what actually happens. The scenarios focus on three main elements: 1. The levels of traffic -- passengers, cargo and aircraft; 2. The infrastructure that will be provided to accommodate these loads; and 3. The way these facilities will be managed. Traffic: Future levels of traffic are perhaps most questionable. While many Americans rarely if ever fly and the domestic market is far from saturated, there are many reasons to think that the rate of growth of US domestic traffic may continue its long-term decline. As seemingly small differences in assumptions about the rate of growth lead over a generation to enormous differences in totals, we must be very tentative about future levels of traffic. For example, by 2025 the number of enplaned passengers in the United States could be two or even three times the current 600 million a year. The composition of the total traffic is in any case likely to be significantly different from what it is today. The international components could be larger and more pervasive. This could be propelled by two factors: the growth in the number of foreign visitors as the rest of the world catches up to the United States in terms of air travel, and improvements in aircraft range that