预测埃及至2010年的生育率和死亡率水平的时间序列分析。

M. Hussein
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引用次数: 3

摘要

自1900年以来,埃及的生育率和死亡率都有所下降。然而,粗死亡率(CDR)的下降幅度远远超过粗出生率(CBR),从而导致本世纪以来该国人口迅速增长。作者应用一类自回归综合移动平均(ARIMA)模型分析了CBR和CDR的时间序列,得到了1992-2010年期间埃及CBR和CDR的预测值。预测结果用于得到该时期内自然增长率的预测值。该程序预测粗死亡率将稳定而缓慢地下降,与第二次世界大战以来的原始粗死亡率时间序列一致,而粗出生率的预测值将继续与原始数据保持一致,上下波动,约为千分之31。因此,自然增长率将保持在很高的水平,到2010年将达到26/1000。旨在降低这一自然增长率的国家政策和计划应侧重于降低仍然极高的粗出生率。每年减少千分之一是一个可行的目标,能够实现千分之一自然增加的目标。降低婴儿死亡率、加强计划生育和提高社会经济水平是实现这一目标的主要手段。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Time series analysis for forecasting both fertility and mortality levels in Egypt until year 2010.
Both fertility and mortality in Egypt have declined since 1900. The crude death rate (CDR) has, however, fallen far more than the crude birth rate (CBR), thus causing rapid population growth in the country over the century. The author applies a class of autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model to analyze a time series of CBR and CDR, deriving predicted values for both CBR and CDR in Egypt over the period 1992-2010. The predictions are used to get predicted values for the natural increase rate over the period. The procedure predicts a steady, but slow decline in the crude death rate coinciding with the original crude death rate time series since World War II, while the predicted values for crude birth rate will continue to move up and down in keeping with the original data reaching approximately 31 per 1000. The rate of natural increase will thus remain high, reaching 26/1000 for the year 2010. National policies and programs aiming to reduce this rate of natural increase should focus upon reducing the crude birth rate which remains extremely high. A reduction of one per thousand annually is a feasible target capable of rendering the goal of 10 per 1000 natural increase. Reducing infant mortality, enhancing family planning programs, and improving socioeconomic levels are the main tools to that end.
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