人口、收入和作物生产力趋势变化的撒哈拉以南非洲农产品市场的长期情景

IF 1.2 4区经济学 Q3 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY

Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI:10.22004/AG.ECON.304766

A. Kuhn, W. Britz

{"title":"人口、收入和作物生产力趋势变化的撒哈拉以南非洲农产品市场的长期情景","authors":"A. Kuhn, W. Britz","doi":"10.22004/AG.ECON.304766","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"This study develops long-term scenarios combining trends in population numbers, incomes, and crop productivity for Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) up to 2050 by using a recursive-dynamic version of the GTAP general equilibrium model. Results suggest that crop productivity will have a major impact on cropland expansion in SSA, giving potentially available cropland the role of a buffer that could smooth differences between future production outcomes. Another inherent smoothing factor will be countervailing trends in population and income growth that will diminish future differences in food commodity consumption per capita and limit the impact of African trends in the rest of the world.","PeriodicalId":54890,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics","volume":"46 1","pages":"20-36"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2000,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Long-Term Scenarios for Sub-Saharan Africa’s Agro-Food Markets with Varying Population, Income and Crop Productivity Trends\",\"authors\":\"A. Kuhn, W. Britz\",\"doi\":\"10.22004/AG.ECON.304766\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"This study develops long-term scenarios combining trends in population numbers, incomes, and crop productivity for Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) up to 2050 by using a recursive-dynamic version of the GTAP general equilibrium model. Results suggest that crop productivity will have a major impact on cropland expansion in SSA, giving potentially available cropland the role of a buffer that could smooth differences between future production outcomes. Another inherent smoothing factor will be countervailing trends in population and income growth that will diminish future differences in food commodity consumption per capita and limit the impact of African trends in the rest of the world.\",\"PeriodicalId\":54890,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics\",\"volume\":\"46 1\",\"pages\":\"20-36\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":1.2000,\"publicationDate\":\"2021-01-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"96\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.22004/AG.ECON.304766\",\"RegionNum\":4,\"RegionCategory\":\"经济学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q3\",\"JCRName\":\"AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.22004/AG.ECON.304766","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY","Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

摘要

本研究通过使用GTAP一般均衡模型的递归动态版本，结合撒哈拉以南非洲(SSA)到2050年的人口数量、收入和作物生产力趋势，制定了长期情景。结果表明，作物生产力将对SSA的耕地扩张产生重大影响，使潜在的可利用耕地发挥缓冲作用，可以消除未来生产结果之间的差异。另一个固有的平滑因素将是人口和收入增长的抵消趋势，这种趋势将缩小今后人均粮食商品消费方面的差异，并限制非洲趋势对世界其他地区的影响。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

查看原文本刊更多论文

Long-Term Scenarios for Sub-Saharan Africa’s Agro-Food Markets with Varying Population, Income and Crop Productivity Trends

This study develops long-term scenarios combining trends in population numbers, incomes, and crop productivity for Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) up to 2050 by using a recursive-dynamic version of the GTAP general equilibrium model. Results suggest that crop productivity will have a major impact on cropland expansion in SSA, giving potentially available cropland the role of a buffer that could smooth differences between future production outcomes. Another inherent smoothing factor will be countervailing trends in population and income growth that will diminish future differences in food commodity consumption per capita and limit the impact of African trends in the rest of the world.

求助全文

通过发布文献求助，成功后即可免费获取论文全文。去求助

来源期刊

Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics 社会科学-农业经济与政策

CiteScore

2.30

自引率

7.10%

发文量

审稿时长

>36 weeks

期刊介绍： The mission of the Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics is to publish creative and scholarly economic studies in agriculture, natural resources, and related areas. Manuscripts dealing with the economics of food and agriculture, natural resources and the environment, human resources, and rural development issues are especially encouraged. The Journal provides a forum for topics of interest to those performing economic research as well as to those involved with economic policy and education. Submission of comments on articles previously published in the Journal is welcomed.