东部玉米带整个作物销售年度玉米和大豆基础预测的实用替代方案

IF 1.2 4区经济学 Q3 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY

Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics Pub Date : 2019-01-01 DOI:10.22004/ag.econ.292332

N. Thompson, A. J. Edwards, J. Mintert, C. Hurt

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引用次数: 1

摘要

本文对东部玉米带玉米和大豆基础预测的实用方法进行了重新评价。预测方法的准确性在作物销售年度的过程中有所不同。在收获季节，历史移动平均线预测效果最好。通过结合历史移动平均线和最近的基准水平，收获后的预测可以在短期预测期内(< 8-12周)得到改善。结果表明，玉米采用3- 5年移动平均预测，大豆采用2 -5年移动平均预测。这些玉米和大豆基础预测的准确性在夏季显著下降。

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Practical Alternatives for Forecasting Corn and Soybean Basis in the Eastern Corn Belt throughout the Crop-Marketing Year

This paper re-evaluates practical methods of forecasting corn and soybean basis in the eastern Corn Belt. The accuracy of forecast methods differs over the course of the crop-marketing year. At harvest, historical moving average forecasts perform best. Post-harvest forecasts may be improved at short forecast horizons (<8–12 weeks ahead) by combining historical moving averages and recent basis levels. Results suggest that using 3-to-5-year moving average forecasts for corn basis and a 2or 5-year moving average for soybean basis from harvest through April. The accuracy of these corn and soybean basis forecasts decreases markedly during the summer months.

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来源期刊

Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics 社会科学-农业经济与政策

CiteScore

2.30

自引率

7.10%

发文量

审稿时长

>36 weeks

期刊介绍： The mission of the Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics is to publish creative and scholarly economic studies in agriculture, natural resources, and related areas. Manuscripts dealing with the economics of food and agriculture, natural resources and the environment, human resources, and rural development issues are especially encouraged. The Journal provides a forum for topics of interest to those performing economic research as well as to those involved with economic policy and education. Submission of comments on articles previously published in the Journal is welcomed.