对土耳其经常账户和金融账户之间因果关系的考察

Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance

Economic Annals Pub Date : 2020-01-01 DOI:10.2298/eka2024007k

Ö. Karahan, Olcay Çolak

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引用次数: 0

摘要

*通讯作者，土耳其Bandirma Onyedi Eylul大学经济系经济与行政科学学院，e-mail: okarahan@bandirma.edu.tr。**合著者，土耳其乌萨克大学经济系经济与行政科学学院，e-mail: olcay.colak@usak.edu.tr。凝胶分类:f32、f40、c22。摘要:在商业与经济紧密联系的今天，经常账户与金融账户之间的关系变得至关重要。然而，对于资本与经常项目之间的因果关系走向，经济学家尚未达成共识。我们的研究旨在通过确定土耳其经常账户和金融账户之间因果关系的方向，对2002-2018年的季度数据应用Johansen协整检验和向量误差校正(VEC)模型，为文献做出贡献。实证结果表明，土耳其的因果关系从金融账户一直延伸到经常账户。这意味着流入土耳其的资本有可能恶化其经常账户余额。因此，土耳其实施管理金融账户的政策以提供经常账户余额是至关重要的。

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An examination of the causality relationship between current and financial accounts in Turkey

* Corresponding author, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Department of Economics, Bandirma Onyedi Eylul University, Turkey, e-mail: okarahan@bandirma.edu.tr. ** Co-author, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Department of Economics, Usak University, Turkey, e-mail: olcay.colak@usak.edu.tr. JEL CLASSIFICATION: F32, F40, C22. ABSTRACT: In today’s economies, where commerce and the economy are strongly interrelated, the relationship between current account and financial account has become crucial. However, economists have not reached a consensus regarding the direction of the causality relationship between capital and current accounts. Our study aims to contribute to the literature by determining the direction of the causality relationship between current and financial accounts in Turkey, applying the Johansen Cointegration Test and the Vector Error Correction (VEC) model to quarterly data for 2002–2018. The empirical results show that the causality relationship in Turkey runs from the financial account to the current account. This means that capital inflows to Turkey have the potential to deteriorate the current account balance. Therefore, it is of crucial importance that Turkey implement policies to manage the financial account in order to provide a current account balance.

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来源期刊

Economic Annals Economics, Econometrics and Finance-Economics, Econometrics and Finance (all)

CiteScore

0.90

自引率

0.00%

发文量

审稿时长

18 weeks

期刊介绍： Economic Annals is an academic journal that has been published on a quarterly basis since 1955, initially under its Serbian name of Ekonomski anali (EconLit). Since 2006 it has been published exclusively in English. It is published by the Faculty of Economics, University of Belgrade, Serbia. The journal publishes research in all areas of economics. The Editorial Board welcomes contributions that explore economic issues in a comparative perspective with a focus on transition and emerging economies in Europe and around the world. The journal encourages the submission of original unpublished works, not under consideration by other journals or publications. All submitted papers undergo a double blind refereeing process. Authors are expected to follow standard publication procedures [Instructions to Authors], to recognise the values of the international academic community and to respect the journal’s Policy.