最低工资对失业、物价和经济增长的影响:土耳其的多变量分析

Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance

Economic Annals Pub Date : 2019-01-01 DOI:10.2298/eka1921065k

B. Kemal, Merve Kocaman

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引用次数: 1

摘要

本研究的目的是研究最低工资对失业、物价和土耳其经济增长的影响。使用的数据是每月的，涵盖了2005年1月至2017年3月的数据。生产者价格指数代表价格，工业生产指数代表增长。使用自回归分布滞后(ARDL)模型来观察最低工资对这些变量的影响。然后进行基于误差校正的格兰杰因果检验，以查看短期和长期因果关系。界限检验提供了变量之间长期关系的证据。所得的ARDL结果还表明，虽然最低工资对失业率和价格有统计上显著的影响，但对生产没有统计上显著的影响。虽然只有从最低工资到价格的短期因果关系，但获得的显著误差修正项表明所有变量的长期因果关系。因此，最低工资在土耳其物价上涨和失业人数增加方面发挥了重要作用。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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The impact of minimum wage on unemployment, prices, and growth: A multivariate analysis for Turkey

The aim of this study is to research the impact of minimum wage on unemployment, prices, and growth for the Turkish economy. The data used is monthly and covers the period from January 2005 to March 2017. The producer price index represents prices and the industrial production index represents growth. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model is used to see the effect of the minimum wage on these variables. An error-correction based Granger causality test is then conducted to see short-run and long-run causalities. The bounds test yields evidence of a long-run relationship between variables. The obtained ARDL results also show that while the minimum wage has a statistically significant effect on unemployment and prices, it does not have a statistically significant effect on production. While there is short-run causality from minimum wage to prices only, the obtained significant error correction terms indicate long-run causality for all of the variables. Consequently, the minimum wage plays a significant role in increasing prices and the number of unemployed people in Turkey.

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来源期刊

Economic Annals Economics, Econometrics and Finance-Economics, Econometrics and Finance (all)

CiteScore

0.90

自引率

0.00%

发文量

审稿时长

18 weeks

期刊介绍： Economic Annals is an academic journal that has been published on a quarterly basis since 1955, initially under its Serbian name of Ekonomski anali (EconLit). Since 2006 it has been published exclusively in English. It is published by the Faculty of Economics, University of Belgrade, Serbia. The journal publishes research in all areas of economics. The Editorial Board welcomes contributions that explore economic issues in a comparative perspective with a focus on transition and emerging economies in Europe and around the world. The journal encourages the submission of original unpublished works, not under consideration by other journals or publications. All submitted papers undergo a double blind refereeing process. Authors are expected to follow standard publication procedures [Instructions to Authors], to recognise the values of the international academic community and to respect the journal’s Policy.