反思ISIS时代的反恐:西奈半岛的教训

Sahar F. Aziz
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引用次数: 4

摘要

失败的国家是恐怖主义的避风港。社会、经济和政治危机的有毒组合吸引了暴力极端主义团体在这些无法无天的地区建立基地。随着这些组织的壮大,暴力从邻近地区蔓延到国家、地区,有时甚至蔓延到其他大洲。人们只需要看看纽约、伦敦、马德里和巴黎的恐怖袭击就可以证明,在失败国家之外活动的恐怖分子最终将目光投向了西方国家的首都。虽然恐怖主义的根本原因往往是地方性的,但暴力已不再局限于某一国家或区域。无论是起源于阿富汗、巴基斯坦西北边境、索马里、伊拉克还是叙利亚,恐怖组织的崛起已经成为一个全球性问题,威胁着东半球和西半球公民的安全,尽管程度不同。然而,全球反恐战略更多地关注表象,而不是产生出于政治动机的暴力的潜在社会、政治和经济条件。特别是,反恐政策是由专制国家的军事和安全利益驱动的,这些国家的国家暴力滋生了非国家行为体的更多暴力。西方国家的反恐行动往往局限于防止本土发生暴力事件。随着技术的进步、边界的流动性和国际旅行的普遍存在,各国再也不能忽视恐怖分子建立基地的失败国家日益恶化的状况。他们对失败国家的兴趣也不能局限于轰炸恐怖分子训练营或将恐怖分子推向地下。只有解决为恐怖分子活动提供肥沃土壤的潜在的政治、社会和经济困难,才能改善全体人民的安全。简而言之,西方公民再也无法将自己与东方公民遭受的暴力隔离开来。因此,本文主张在全球反恐政策的预防目标上进行范式转变,根据失败国家的当地需求优先考虑人类发展。此外,人类发展应超越满足诸如粮食、住房和水等基本需求,以解决当地人口所要求的政治改革。由于未能对抗威权主义及其政治压迫的产物,国际社会错误地依赖于适得其反的军事和安全驱动政策。随着暴力跨国行为者的兴起和边界的不稳定,国际社会在维护稳定的名义下支持独裁者,得不敷出。相反,独裁滋生了恐怖主义,因为它们在公民中灌输暴力文化,灌输恐惧、怀疑和侵略。反过来,暴力成为零和游戏中实现变革的唯一手段,赢者通吃的政治制度。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Rethinking Counterterrorism in the Age of ISIS: Lessons from Sinai
Failing states are havens for terrorism. A toxic combination of social, economic, and political crises attract violent extremist groups to establish bases in these lawless areas. As the groups grow in strength, the violence spreads from the immediate vicinity to the nation, region, and sometimes even other continents. One need only look to the terrorist attacks in New York, London, Madrid, and Paris as proof that terrorists operating out of failing states eventually set their sights on attacking Western capitals. Although the underlying causes of terrorism are often local, the violence is no longer constrained within a particular country or region. Whether originating in Afghanistan, the Northwest Frontier of Pakistan, Somalia, Iraq or Syria, the rise of terrorist groups has become a worldwide problem that threatens the safety of citizens in both the Eastern and Western Hemispheres, albeit in differing degrees. Yet, global counterterrorism strategies focus more on symptoms rather than the underlying social, political, and economic conditions that produce politically-motivated violence. In particular, counterterrorism policies are driven by military and security interests of authoritarian states whose state violence breeds more violence by non-state actors. Western nations often limit their counterterrorism practices to merely preventing violence on their soil. With the advancement of technology, fluidity of borders, and ubiquity of international travel, countries can no longer afford to ignore the deteriorating conditions in failing states where terrorists set up bases. Nor can they limit their interest in failed states to bombing terrorist training camps or pushing terrorists underground. Only when the underlying political, social, and economic local hardships that produce fertile grounds for terrorists to operate are addressed can security improve for all people. Simply put, citizens in the West can no longer wall themselves off from violence inflicted on citizens in the East.Accordingly, this Article argues for a paradigm shift in the preventive goals of global counterterrorism policies that prioritizes human development based on the local needs of failing states. Furthermore, human development should go beyond meeting fundamental needs such as food, shelter, and water to address political reforms demanded by the local population. By failing to confront authoritarianism and its offspring of political repression, the international community misguidedly relies on counterproductive military and security-driven policies. With the rise of violent transnational actors and fluid borders, the international community loses more than it gains by supporting dictators under the auspices of preserving stability. To the contrary, dictatorships breed terrorism as they inculcate a culture of violence and instill fear, suspicion, and aggression among the citizens. In turn, violence becomes the only means to effectuate change in a zero-sum game, winner takes all political system.
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