Türkiye’de Bütçe Dengesi ve Finans Hesabı Dengesi Arasında Bir İlişki Var Mı?(Is There A Relationship Between The Budget Balance And Financial Account Balance In Turkey?)

Butce dengesi ve diger makroekonomik degiskenler arasindaki iliski uzun zamandan beri iktisatcilarin ilgisini cekmistir. Bu kapsamda butce dengesi ile finans hesabi dengesi arasinda da bir iliski olabilecegi ileri surulmustur. Teorik olarak butce dengesi ve finans hesabi dengesinin degisik kanallarla birbirlerini etkilemeleri mumkundur. Bu calismada Turkiye icin 1975-2014 donemi verileri kullanilarak merkezi yonetim butce dengesi ve finans hesabi dengesi arasindaki iliski hem esbutunlesme hem de nedensellik testleri yardimiyla incelenmistir. Degiskenlerin farkli butunlesme derecelerine sahip olmalari nedeniyle ARDL yaklasimi kullanilmistir. ARDL yaklasimina gore butce dengesi ve finans hesabi dengesi arasinda bir esbutunlesme iliskisinin olmadigi anlasilmisir. Ayrica soz konusu degiskenler arasinda bir Granger nedensellik iliskisinin varligi Toda-Yamamoto yontemiyle test edilmis ve bu degiskenler arasinda iki yonlu bir nedensellik iliskisi oldugu sonucuna ulasilmistir. The relationship between the government budget balance and other macroeconomic variables has drawn attention from economists for a long time. In this context it is argued that there would be a relation between the budget balance and financial account balance. Theory suggests that the budget balance and financial account balance would affect each other through different channels. This paper examines the relationship between the central government budget balance and financial account balance in Turkey by using annual data over the period 1975-2014 and employing ARDL approach to co-integration and Toda-Yamamoto approach to test for Granger causality. ARDL bounds testing results indicate that there is no long run relationship between the budget balance and financial account balance during the period examined. However, Granger causality tests suggest that there is a bi-directional causality between the budget balance and financial account balance.