{"title":"中国对马来西亚经济的影响:符号限制结构向量自回归(SVAR)模型的实证","authors":"M. Zaidi, Zulkefly Abdul Karim","doi":"10.21315/aamjaf2018.14.2.2","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"China has been developing aggressively since its accession into the World Trade Organisation. Consequently, China has become one of the major trading partners to many countries in the world including Malaysia. To what extent China has affected Malaysian economy has been a hot issue facing the economists and practitioners. This paper examines the influence of China on Malaysian economic performances. Using structural vector autoregression (SVAR) methodology that takes into account the effect of other major trading partner countries such as the U.S., Japan and Singapore, the results indicate that different utilisation of foreign country variables to represent external sector in the model brings about different impact on domestic variables. It is shown that the U.S. is particularly important to affect domestic output while China is more important in influencing domestic inflation and the exchange rate, especially with regards to their respective income shocks. In addition, Singapore plays more dominant role in affecting domestic sector when foreign monetary policy shocks are considered. Japan is however more influential in affecting the exchange rate in some other shocks. While China is showing their dominance in the world economy, the study implies that knowing which country exactly affects which domestic Published date: 31 December 2018 To cite this article: Zaidi, M. A. S., Karim, Z. A., & Kefeli, Z. (2018). Impact of China on Malaysian economy: Empirical evidence of sign-restricted structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model. 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引用次数: 6
摘要
自加入世界贸易组织(wto)以来,中国一直在大力发展。中国已成为包括马来西亚在内的世界许多国家的主要贸易伙伴之一。中国在多大程度上影响了马来西亚经济,一直是摆在经济学家和从业者面前的热点问题。本文考察了中国对马来西亚经济表现的影响。利用结构向量自回归(SVAR)方法,考虑到其他主要贸易伙伴国如美国、日本和新加坡的影响,结果表明,在模型中使用不同的外国变量来代表外部部门对国内变量的影响不同。结果表明,美国对国内产出的影响尤为重要,而中国对国内通胀和汇率的影响更为重要,尤其是在各自的收入冲击方面。此外,当考虑国外货币政策冲击时,新加坡对国内部门的影响更为主导。然而,日本在其他一些冲击中对汇率的影响更大。虽然中国正在展示其在世界经济中的主导地位,但该研究表明,了解哪个国家确切影响哪个国内出版日期:2018年12月31日。引用本文:Zaidi, m.a.s., Karim, Z. A., & Kefeli, Z.(2018)。中国对马来西亚经济的影响:符号限制结构向量自回归(SVAR)模型的经验证据。管理学报,14(2),25-44。https://doi。链接到这篇文章:https://doi.org/10.21315/aamjaf2018.14.2.2 Mohd Azlan Shah Zaidi等人。在不久的将来,在将马来西亚经济转变为高收入国家的过程中,26个变量对于减轻外交政策变化或冲击的不利影响至关重要。
Impact of China on Malaysian Economy: Empirical Evidence of Sign-Restricted Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) Model
China has been developing aggressively since its accession into the World Trade Organisation. Consequently, China has become one of the major trading partners to many countries in the world including Malaysia. To what extent China has affected Malaysian economy has been a hot issue facing the economists and practitioners. This paper examines the influence of China on Malaysian economic performances. Using structural vector autoregression (SVAR) methodology that takes into account the effect of other major trading partner countries such as the U.S., Japan and Singapore, the results indicate that different utilisation of foreign country variables to represent external sector in the model brings about different impact on domestic variables. It is shown that the U.S. is particularly important to affect domestic output while China is more important in influencing domestic inflation and the exchange rate, especially with regards to their respective income shocks. In addition, Singapore plays more dominant role in affecting domestic sector when foreign monetary policy shocks are considered. Japan is however more influential in affecting the exchange rate in some other shocks. While China is showing their dominance in the world economy, the study implies that knowing which country exactly affects which domestic Published date: 31 December 2018 To cite this article: Zaidi, M. A. S., Karim, Z. A., & Kefeli, Z. (2018). Impact of China on Malaysian economy: Empirical evidence of sign-restricted structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model. Asian Academy of Management Journal of Accounting and Finance, 14(2), 25–44. https://doi. org/10.21315/aamjaf2018.14.2.2 To link to this article: https://doi.org/10.21315/aamjaf2018.14.2.2 Mohd Azlan Shah Zaidi et al. 26 variables is very crucial in mitigating the adverse impact of foreign policy change or shocks in the process of transforming Malaysia’s economy toward high income nation in the near future.
期刊介绍:
To provide a forum for the exchange of ideas and dissemination of empirical findings and analytical research in the specialized areas of accounting and finance with special emphasis on scholarly works with policy implications for countries in the Asia Pacific. The following are some of the topical subject areas relevant to the journal (but are not limited to): Accounting • Financial reporting and accounting standards • Auditing issues • Value based accounting and its relevance • Theory of accounting firm • Environmental auditing • Corporate governance issues • Public sector accounting Finance • Valuation of financial assets • International capital flows • Ownership and agency theory • Stock market behavior • Investment and portfolio management • Islamic banking and finance • Microstructures of financial markets