The Taiwan Strait crisis: uncertainty of a military scenario

The article assesses the possibility of escalation of the current Taiwan Strait crisis, taking into account Taipei’s activities and Washington’s stance. The People’s Republic of China’s stance on this issue and its approach to resolving the issue are examined through the lens of its proclaimed “core interests”. The author argues that the military option for the Taiwan Strait crisis is not optimal for either Beijing or Washington due to unpredictability of its consequences. It is suggested that the United States might even be comfortable with the use of military force by China, as it would provide justification for American hegemonic policy in East Asia. It is also suggested that the prolonged, protracted conflict may play into the Washington's hands, as it allows the United States to buy time for rallying allies and partners and to deploy more forces in the Pacific region. Taking into account potential consequences of escalation, the author suggests focusing on de-escalation efforts and on returning to dialogue between Beijing and Taipei. 台湾海峡危机：“强硬选择”的不确定性 本文根据中国台湾的行动以及美国的立场，研究了台湾海峡危机升级的可能性。调查了中国在这个问题上的立场，以及中国按照“根本利益”的概念解决这个问题的方法。文章试图证明，由于后果极难预测，以军事手段解决台湾海峡局势对双方来说都是极其低效的。同时，本文假设美国可能会对中国使用军事力量感到满意，因为这将证明美国在东亚的霸权是合理的。有人指出，冲突的延长显然对美国有利，因为它可能为盟国和伙伴在太平洋地区巩固和部署更多力量争取时间。此外，中国经济面临的压力可能会加强以美国为中心的交往形式。然而，俄罗斯在乌克兰的特别军事行动的经验表明，完全孤立世界大国是不可能的，因为它会使世界经济体系和全球战略稳定出现不稳定的状况。因此，研究建议把重点放在避免冲突升级的努力上，恢复海峡两岸之间的有效对话。