{"title":"基于自适应梯度采样算法的热防护材料热解模型参数的贝叶斯识别,并应用于火星大气层入口","authors":"J. Coheur, T. Magin, P. Chatelain, M. Arnst","doi":"10.1615/int.j.uncertaintyquantification.2022042928","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"For space missions involving atmospheric entry, a thermal protection system is essential to shield the spacecraft and its payload from the severe aerothermal loads. Carbon/phenolic composite materials have gained renewed interest to serve as ablative thermal protection materials (TPMs). New experimental data relevant to the pyrolytic decomposition of the phenolic resin used in such carbon/phenolic composite TPMs have recently been published in the literature. In this paper, we infer from these new experimental data an uncertainty-quantified pyrolysis model. We adopt a Bayesian probabilistic approach to account for uncertainties in the model identification. We use an approximate likelihood function involving a weighted distance between the model predictions and the time-dependent experimental data. To sample from the posterior, we use a gradient-informed Markov chain Monte Carlo method, namely, a method based on an Itô stochastic differential equation, with an adaptive selection of the numerical parameters. To select the decomposition mechanisms to be represented in the pyrolysis model, we proceed by progressively increasing the complexity of the pyrolysis model until a satisfactory fit to the data is ultimately obtained. The pyrolysis model thus obtained involves six reactions and has 48 parameters. We demonstrate the use of the identified pyrolysis model in a numerical simulation of heat shield surface recession in a Martian entry.","PeriodicalId":48814,"journal":{"name":"International Journal for Uncertainty Quantification","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.5000,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"1","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Bayesian identification of pyrolysis model parameters for thermal protection materials using an adaptive gradient-informed sampling algorithm with application to a Mars atmospheric entry\",\"authors\":\"J. Coheur, T. Magin, P. Chatelain, M. Arnst\",\"doi\":\"10.1615/int.j.uncertaintyquantification.2022042928\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"For space missions involving atmospheric entry, a thermal protection system is essential to shield the spacecraft and its payload from the severe aerothermal loads. Carbon/phenolic composite materials have gained renewed interest to serve as ablative thermal protection materials (TPMs). New experimental data relevant to the pyrolytic decomposition of the phenolic resin used in such carbon/phenolic composite TPMs have recently been published in the literature. In this paper, we infer from these new experimental data an uncertainty-quantified pyrolysis model. We adopt a Bayesian probabilistic approach to account for uncertainties in the model identification. We use an approximate likelihood function involving a weighted distance between the model predictions and the time-dependent experimental data. To sample from the posterior, we use a gradient-informed Markov chain Monte Carlo method, namely, a method based on an Itô stochastic differential equation, with an adaptive selection of the numerical parameters. To select the decomposition mechanisms to be represented in the pyrolysis model, we proceed by progressively increasing the complexity of the pyrolysis model until a satisfactory fit to the data is ultimately obtained. The pyrolysis model thus obtained involves six reactions and has 48 parameters. We demonstrate the use of the identified pyrolysis model in a numerical simulation of heat shield surface recession in a Martian entry.\",\"PeriodicalId\":48814,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"International Journal for Uncertainty Quantification\",\"volume\":\"1 1\",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":1.5000,\"publicationDate\":\"2022-01-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"1\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"International Journal for Uncertainty Quantification\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"5\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1615/int.j.uncertaintyquantification.2022042928\",\"RegionNum\":4,\"RegionCategory\":\"工程技术\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q2\",\"JCRName\":\"ENGINEERING, MULTIDISCIPLINARY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"International Journal for Uncertainty Quantification","FirstCategoryId":"5","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1615/int.j.uncertaintyquantification.2022042928","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"ENGINEERING, MULTIDISCIPLINARY","Score":null,"Total":0}
Bayesian identification of pyrolysis model parameters for thermal protection materials using an adaptive gradient-informed sampling algorithm with application to a Mars atmospheric entry
For space missions involving atmospheric entry, a thermal protection system is essential to shield the spacecraft and its payload from the severe aerothermal loads. Carbon/phenolic composite materials have gained renewed interest to serve as ablative thermal protection materials (TPMs). New experimental data relevant to the pyrolytic decomposition of the phenolic resin used in such carbon/phenolic composite TPMs have recently been published in the literature. In this paper, we infer from these new experimental data an uncertainty-quantified pyrolysis model. We adopt a Bayesian probabilistic approach to account for uncertainties in the model identification. We use an approximate likelihood function involving a weighted distance between the model predictions and the time-dependent experimental data. To sample from the posterior, we use a gradient-informed Markov chain Monte Carlo method, namely, a method based on an Itô stochastic differential equation, with an adaptive selection of the numerical parameters. To select the decomposition mechanisms to be represented in the pyrolysis model, we proceed by progressively increasing the complexity of the pyrolysis model until a satisfactory fit to the data is ultimately obtained. The pyrolysis model thus obtained involves six reactions and has 48 parameters. We demonstrate the use of the identified pyrolysis model in a numerical simulation of heat shield surface recession in a Martian entry.
期刊介绍:
The International Journal for Uncertainty Quantification disseminates information of permanent interest in the areas of analysis, modeling, design and control of complex systems in the presence of uncertainty. The journal seeks to emphasize methods that cross stochastic analysis, statistical modeling and scientific computing. Systems of interest are governed by differential equations possibly with multiscale features. Topics of particular interest include representation of uncertainty, propagation of uncertainty across scales, resolving the curse of dimensionality, long-time integration for stochastic PDEs, data-driven approaches for constructing stochastic models, validation, verification and uncertainty quantification for predictive computational science, and visualization of uncertainty in high-dimensional spaces. Bayesian computation and machine learning techniques are also of interest for example in the context of stochastic multiscale systems, for model selection/classification, and decision making. Reports addressing the dynamic coupling of modern experiments and modeling approaches towards predictive science are particularly encouraged. Applications of uncertainty quantification in all areas of physical and biological sciences are appropriate.