同时期的武装挑战会影响大规模非暴力运动的结果吗

IF 1.3 2区社会学 Q3 SOCIOLOGY

Mobilization Pub Date : 2015-12-18 DOI:10.17813/1086-671X-20-4-427

E. Chenoweth, Kurt Schock

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引用次数: 63

摘要

民间抵抗是促进重大社会和政治变革的有力战略，但没有研究系统地评估同时进行的武装抵抗对非武装抵抗运动成功率的影响。使用非暴力和暴力冲突结果(NAVCO 1.1)数据集，其中包括1900年至2006年106次主要非暴力抵抗运动的汇总数据，这些运动具有最大的政治目标，我们发现同期武装斗争对非暴力运动的结果没有积极影响。我们确实发现了间接负面影响的证据，即同时期的武装斗争与民众参与呈负相关，因此，与非武装运动的成功机会降低相关。两组对比表明，负面暴力侧翼效应在两个不成功的案例(1988年缅甸8-8-88挑战和1952年至1961年南非反种族隔离挑战)中发挥了强烈作用。

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Do contemporaneous armed challenges affect the outcomes of mass nonviolent campaigns

Civil resistance is a powerful strategy for promoting major social and political change, yet no study has systematically evaluated the effects of simultaneous armed resistance on the success rates of unarmed resistance campaigns. Using the Nonviolent and Violent Conflict Outcomes (NAVCO 1.1) data set, which includes aggregate data on 106 primarily nonviolent resistance campaigns from 1900 to 2006 with maximalist political objectives, we find that contemporaneous armed struggles do not have positive effects on the outcome of nonviolent campaigns. We do find evidence for an indirect negative effect, in that contemporaneous armed struggles are negatively associated with popular participation and are, consequently, correlated with reduced chances of success for otherwise-unarmed campaigns. Two paired comparisons suggest that negative violent flank effects operated strongly in two unsuccessful cases (the 8-8-88 challenge in Burma in 1988 and the South African antiapartheid challenge from 1952 to 1961, with vio...

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来源期刊

Mobilization SOCIOLOGY-

CiteScore

3.80

自引率

0.00%

发文量

期刊介绍： Mobilization: An International Quarterly is the premier journal of research specializing in social movements, protests, insurgencies, revolutions, and other forms of contentious politics. Mobilization was first published in 1996 to fill the need for a scholarly review of research that focused exclusively with social movements, protest and collective action. Mobilization is fully peer-reviewed and widely indexed. A 2003 study, when Mobilization was published semiannually, showed that its citation index rate was 1.286, which placed it among the top ten sociology journals. Today, Mobilization is published four times a year, in March, June, September, and December. The editorial board is composed of thirty internationally recognized scholars from political science, sociology and social psychology. The goal of Mobilization is to provide a forum for global, scholarly dialogue. It is currently distributed to the top international research libraries and read by the most engaged scholars in the field. We hope that through its wide distribution, different research strategies and theoretical/conceptual approaches will be shared among the global community of social movement scholars, encouraging a collaborative process that will further the development of a cumulative social science.