Strategies for China's Agricultural Development Toward 2050

: In the era of global change, it is essential to analyze the future trend of agricultural development in China and forecast the direction and path of China’s agricultural modernization towards 2050 to assist policymaking. In this study, we first investigate agricultural development in China over the past four decades and then analyze the opportunities and challenges that China’s agricultural development is facing. Lastly, we forecast future agricultural development in China. Our study shows that China’s agriculture has experienced rapid growth over the past four decades; institutional innovation, technological progress, marketization reform, and public investment are the four major driving forces. However, agricultural development in China still encounters many challenges, including a slowdown in productivity growth, degradation of soil and water, and uncertainty of the global supply chain. This implies that, towards 2050, China should adhere to the principles of innovation, green, high efficiency, and sustainability, and accelerate agricultural modernization by efficiently producing more high-valued and green products to maintain food security and self-sustained grain supply. To achieve this long-term goal, the government should deploy seven major strategies focusing on biological technology, seedling innovation and among others, and initiate a series of agriculture-supportive policies.