Tax Revenue Impact on Economic Growth in Nigeria: ARDL Bounds Test and Cointegration Approach

The paper aims to explore how the introduction of an electronic tax system impacts on economic growth in Nigeria. The neoclassical growth theory and Technology Acceptance Model (TAM) was used in the study. Based on diagnostic tests, Autoregressive Distributed Lag bounds test regression model was adequately created. The quarterly secondary data of Central Bank of Nigeria and tax statistics data were divided into two periods for analysis: from 2011q1 to 2015q3 pre-electronic tax period (pre-e-tax) and from 2015q4 to 2020q4 post-electronic tax period (post-e-tax). In pre-e-tax in the long-run, education trust fund revenue strongly enhances economic growth, company income tax and stamp duty are moderate revenue earners for economic growth, while petroleum profit tax revenue have moderate negative impact on economic growth. Value added tax and capital gain tax revenues insignificantly decreases in economic growth in the same period. In post-e-tax in the long run, value added tax, petroleum profit tax, and capital gin tax insignificantly decreases economic growth, while company income tax, education trust fund, and stamp duty insignificantly enhance it. For pre-e-tax revenue in the short-run, education trust fund strongly decreases economic growth, value added tax and petroleum profit tax had insignificant positive influence, while company income tax, capital gain tax, and stamp duty had no impact. For post-e-tax revenue in the short-run company income tax had no influence, value added tax had moderate negative impact, petroleum profit tax had a strong positive impact, education trust fund, capital gain tax, and stamp duty had strong negative impact on economic growth. To optimize the relationship between tax structure and economic growth, tax evasion, corruption, and tax avoidance should be checked.