产出与通胀之间的新凯恩斯权衡:来自俄罗斯的基于时间序列的证据

Business and Economic Horizons Pub Date : 2019-01-01 DOI:10.15208/BEH.2019.8

Chin-Hong Puah, Chong-Yang Sim, Mui-Yin Chin, M. Arip

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引用次数: 2

摘要

由于石油出口仍然是俄罗斯经济的主要收入来源，全球油价的持续下跌正在造成严重的不利供应冲击和成本推动型通货膨胀。政策制定者最近的稳定政策尝试，在稳定国民产出和通胀方面都不太成功。这引发了人们对政策制定者干预俄罗斯经济的相关性的担忧。我们运用Asai(1999)的模型来研究这个问题。我们的实证结果表明，短期内俄罗斯的产出和通货膨胀之间的权衡与平均通货膨胀率呈负相关，这支持了新凯恩斯主义的观点。因此，稳定政策，特别是政策制定者采取的货币政策，对于缓和近期金融危机导致的产出与通胀之间的短期权衡至关重要。

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The new Keynesian trade-off between output and inflation: Time series based evidence from Russia

As oil exports remain the main source of income for the Russian economy, the ongoing plunging of global oil prices is causing severe adverse supply shock and cost-push inflation in the country. The recent attempts at stabilisation policies by the policymakers have not been very successful in stabilising both national output and inflation. This has brought about concern over the relevance of policymaker interventions in the Russian economy. We investigate this matter by applying Asai’s (1999) model. Our empirical results indicated that the trade-off between output and inflation in the short run in Russia is inversely associated with the mean rate of inflation, which supports the new Keynesian view. As such, stabilisation policies, particularly monetary policies adopted by policymakers, are extremely crucial in moderating the short-run trade-off between output and inflation with respect to the recent financial crisis.

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Business and Economic Horizons ECONOMICS-

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期刊介绍： The Business and Economic Horizons (BEH) is an international peer-reviewed journal that publishes high quality theoretical, empirical, and review papers covering the broad spectrum of research in areas of economics, business, management, and finance. The journal aim is to bridge the gap between the theory and the observed data in these constantly developing domains. BEH Editorial Board welcomes the high-quality original research articles and review papers that verify the well-grounded and the emerging theories by employing the econometric, statistical methods or other relevant empirical methods in theoretical and applied economic analysis. BEH does not discriminate articles utilizing the non-mainstream approaches such as experimental research, institutional analysis, other variations of heterodox and developmental economic studies. Therefore, the submissions in any field of micro- and macroeconomics, business ethics, economic policy or finance are appropriate for this journal. We hope, the provided contributions will help to understand the contemporary challenges faced by the private and public sector and will establish an international forum of empirical research.