预测财务困境:o -分模型对巴基斯坦企业的适用性

Business and Economic Horizons Pub Date : 2018-01-01 DOI:10.15208/BEH.2018.28

H. Waqas, Rohani Md-Rus

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引用次数: 10

摘要

财务困境预测作为一种有效的预警系统，在企业财务管理中具有重要的意义。本研究采用最受推崇的财务困境预测O-score模型，并将其预测精度与估计的logit模型进行比较。该研究通过包括盈利能力比率、流动性比率、杠杆比率和现金流量比率来估计logit模型。本研究利用现金流量比率来预测巴基斯坦上市公司的财务困境，填补了这一空白。估计模型的样本包括2006-2016年期间290家公司，其中45家陷入困境，245家健康公司，涵盖巴基斯坦证券交易所的所有部门。该研究对不同财务比率在预测财务困境中的作用提供了重要的见解，并表明估计的logit模型在预测财务困境方面具有更高的准确率。

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Predicting financial distress: Applicability of O-score model for Pakistani firms

Predicting financial distress have significant importance in corporate finance as it serves as an effective early warning system for the related stakeholders. The study applies the most admired financial distress prediction O-score model and compares its predictive accuracy with estimated logit model. The study estimates logit model by including the profitability ratios, liquidity ratios, leverage ratios, and cash flow ratios. This study filled the gap by using the cash flow ratios to predict financial distress for Pakistani listed firms. The sample for the estimation model consists of 290 firms with 45 distressed and 245 healthy firms for the period 2006-2016 and covers all sectors of Pakistan Stock Exchange. The study provides important insights on the role of different financial ratio in predicting financial distress and shows that estimated logit model produces higher accuracy rate in predicting financial distress.

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Business and Economic Horizons ECONOMICS-

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期刊介绍： The Business and Economic Horizons (BEH) is an international peer-reviewed journal that publishes high quality theoretical, empirical, and review papers covering the broad spectrum of research in areas of economics, business, management, and finance. The journal aim is to bridge the gap between the theory and the observed data in these constantly developing domains. BEH Editorial Board welcomes the high-quality original research articles and review papers that verify the well-grounded and the emerging theories by employing the econometric, statistical methods or other relevant empirical methods in theoretical and applied economic analysis. BEH does not discriminate articles utilizing the non-mainstream approaches such as experimental research, institutional analysis, other variations of heterodox and developmental economic studies. Therefore, the submissions in any field of micro- and macroeconomics, business ethics, economic policy or finance are appropriate for this journal. We hope, the provided contributions will help to understand the contemporary challenges faced by the private and public sector and will establish an international forum of empirical research.