Projected Savings to Canadian Provincial Budgets from Reduced Long-Term Care Home Utilization Due to a Disease-Modifying Alzheimer's Treatment.

Background: A disease-modifying Alzheimer's treatment could provide budgetary savings to Canadian provinces from a reduction in long-term care home use, yet we do not know the magnitude of those potential savings.

Objective: We project savings to each Canadian province's budget from 2023 to 2043.

Design: Annual savings are projected using a Markov model. We account for reduction in long-term care home use and in use of Alternative Level of Care (ALC) beds, which are hospital beds occupied by care home-eligible patients on the wait list for admission.

Results: A treatment that delays disease progression by 40% is projected to avoid 142,507 long-term care home and ALC years, resulting in $17.2 billion cumulative savings across all Canadian provinces, a 21% relative reduction among treatment eligible patients. Average per capita savings were $1,132, ranging from $734 (Alberta) to $2,895 (Prince Edward Island). Cumulative savings could increase to $22.7 billion with enhanced triage of patients in primary care stages and to $25.6 billion if all capacity constraints for diagnosis and treatment were removed.

Conclusion: A disease-modifying treatment could create budgetary savings from lower long-term care home use, offsetting part of the treatment cost. With the increasing demand for long-term care home beds and the high rates of patients being held in hospitals while wait-listed, such a treatment could additionally provide relief to the overburdened long-term care system in Canada.