Analysis of Causality Relationship of Components of Socio-ecological and Socio-economical System for Management of the Outermost Small Islands: A Case of Lingayan Island, Central Sulawesi

Indonesia has more than 17,506 islands and 92 islands of them are outermost small islands.  Lingayan is one of them located in Northwest of Sulawesi Island and it has geostrategic role to determine the sea boundaries of Indonesian State (NKRI) including the territorial seas, the exclusive economic zone and the continental shelf.  Recently, the coastal ecosystems of Lingayan has degraded and the island’s economy is weak so they cannot support the life’s survival of inhabiting people. This condition could weaken the geostrategic role in accordance with article 121 Chapter VIII of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). Based on the above reasons, the study aim to examine and assess the causal relation of components in the socio-ecological and socio-economical systems as a basis for management of the Lingayan Island with target on conservation of coastal ecosystems and growth of inhabitant’ business economic.  Causalities relations within components were built using Statistic Equation Model (SEM) with AMOS method and 40 constructed indicators as well as determinate the suitability program using Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP).  The research showed that there is relationship between the components of socio-ecological systems as indicated by the fit model of causal relation path diagram that provides chi square value = 236.994, RMSEA = 0.083, GFI = 0.884.  Furthermore, there is relationship between the components of socio-economical that provides chi square value = 192.824, RMSEA = 0.081, GFI = 0.900. The most appropriate programs are seaweed cultivation (34.0%) and restoration (23.4%).