COVID-19疫情的管理:实际感染人数的估计、社会距离的影响和有效检测策略的方向意大利的例子

IF 0.4 Q4 ECONOMICS

International Journal of Computational Economics and Econometrics Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI:10.1504/ijcee.2021.10040893

G. Barcaroli, B. Guardabascio, F. Brogi

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引用次数: 0

摘要

这项工作的重点是所谓的“第一波”COVID-19流行(2020年2月21日至4月10日)，旨在概述一项可行的战略，以遏制COVID-19的传播，并有效地规划退出封锁措施。它提供了一个模型，根据死亡率估计国家和区域一级人口中实际感染的总人数，以填补已证实的与官方报告病例数之间的差距。结果是与报告的病例相比，用于制定每日新病例预测的参考人群。最后的差异是根据遵守限制性措施或进行的试验次数不足来分析的。仿真结果表明，有效的测试策略是主要的可操作措施。此外，该文件估计了在国家和区域一级进行的最佳检测次数，以便能够使越来越多的人摆脱限制措施。

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The management of COVID-19 epidemic: estimate of the actual infected population, impact of social distancing and directions for an efficient testing strategy. The case of Italy

This work focuses on the so called 'first wave' of COVID-19 epidemic (21 February-10 April 2020) and aims at outlining a viable strategy to contain the COVID-19 spread and efficiently plan an exit from lockdown measures. It offers a model to estimate the total number of actual infected among the population at national and regional level inferring from the lethality rate, to fill the proven gap with the number of officially reported cases. The result is the reference population used to develop a forecasting exercise of new daily cases, compared to the reported ones. The eventual discrepancy is analysed in terms of compliance with the restrictive measures or to an insufficient number of tests performed. This simulation indicates that an efficient testing policy is the main actionable measure. Furthermore, the paper estimates the optimal number of tests to be performed at national and regional level, in order to be able to release an increasing number of individuals from restrictive measures.

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来源期刊

International Journal of Computational Economics and Econometrics ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

0.60

自引率

0.00%

发文量

期刊介绍： IJCEE explores the intersection of economics, econometrics and computation. It investigates the application of recent computational techniques to all branches of economic modelling, both theoretical and empirical. IJCEE aims at an international and multidisciplinary standing, promoting rigorous quantitative examination of relevant economic issues and policy analyses. The journal''s research areas include computational economic modelling, computational econometrics and statistics and simulation methods. It is an internationally competitive, peer-reviewed journal dedicated to stimulating discussion at the forefront of economic and econometric research. Topics covered include: -Computational Economics: Computational techniques applied to economic problems and policies, Agent-based modelling, Control and game theory, General equilibrium models, Optimisation methods, Economic dynamics, Software development and implementation, -Econometrics: Applied micro and macro econometrics, Monte Carlo simulation, Robustness and sensitivity analysis, Bayesian econometrics, Time series analysis and forecasting techniques, Operational research methods with applications to economics, Software development and implementation.