气候变化背景下IDF关系发展的统计建模新方法

IF 1.2 Q4 WATER RESOURCES
V. Nguyen, Truong-Huy Nguyen
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引用次数: 0

摘要

极端降雨强度-持续时间-频率(IDF)关系是各种城市水利基础设施设计中常用的设计风暴估计方法。近年来,气候变化已被认为对水文循环产生了深远的影响。因此,在气候变化的背景下推导IDF关系已被认为是当前工程实践中最具挑战性的任务之一。主要的挑战是如何在全球或区域尺度的气候模式给出的气候预测与当地观测到的极端降雨之间建立联系。因此,我们的总体目标是引入一种新的统计建模方法,将全球或区域气候预测器与观测到的给定地点的日和次日极端降雨量联系起来。本文利用21种不同全球气候模式的气候模拟和来自加拿大各地雨量计网络的极端降雨数据进行了说明应用,以表明所提出的建模方法用于评估气候变化对IDF关系的影响的可行性、准确性和稳健性。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
A Novel Statistical Modeling Approach to Developing IDF Relations in the Context of Climate Change
Extreme rainfall intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) relations have been commonly used for estimating the design storm for the design of various urban water infrastructures. In recent years, climate change has been recognized as having a profound impact on the hydrologic cycle. Hence, the derivation of IDF relations in the context of a changing climate has been recognized as one of the most challenging tasks in current engineering practice. The main challenge is how to establish the linkages between the climate projections given by climate models at the global or regional scales and the observed extreme rainfalls at a local site of interest. Therefore, our overall objective is to introduce a new statistical modeling approach to linking global or regional climate predictors to the observed daily and sub-daily rainfall extremes at a given location. Illustrative applications using climate simulations from 21 different global climate models and extreme rainfall data available from rain gauge networks located across Canada are presented to indicate the feasibility, accuracy, and robustness of the proposed modeling approach for assessing the climate change impact on IDF relations.
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来源期刊
CiteScore
1.30
自引率
0.00%
发文量
8
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