凯恩斯-奈特和德菲内蒂-萨维奇的概率方法:一种经济学解释

Q2 Arts and Humanities

History of Economic Ideas Pub Date : 2016-01-01 DOI:10.1400/242582

Rogério Arthmar

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引用次数: 62

摘要

布鲁诺·德·菲内蒂和伦纳德·j·萨维奇提出的“不确定性”的定义与j·m·凯恩斯和弗兰克·h·奈特提出的定义有很大不同。最近的研究似乎忽略了de Finetti和Savage 1962年的论文“Sul Modo di Scegliere le Probabilita Iniziali”的这一方面。这项特别的工作被引用来支持德菲内蒂-萨维奇的不确定性概念与凯恩斯-奈特的方法之间存在相似之处的说法。然而，一旦认识到德菲内蒂和萨维奇的讨论只涉及初始概率，这种说法就失去了很大的吸引力。

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The Keynes-Knight and the de Finetti-Savage's Approaches to Probability: an Economic Interpretation

The definition of ‘uncertainty’ proposed by Bruno de Finetti and Leonard J. Savage is significantly different from the one advanced by J. M. Keynes and Frank H. Knight. Recent studies seem to have overlooked this aspect of de Finetti and Savage’s 1962 paper "Sul Modo di Scegliere le Probabilita Iniziali". This particular work has been cited as supporting the claim that there are similarities between the de Finetti-Savage’s conception of uncertainty and the Keynes-Knight’s approach. This claim, however, loses much of its appeal once it is realized that the discussion by de Finetti and Savage involves only the initial probabilities.

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来源期刊

History of Economic Ideas Arts and Humanities-History

CiteScore

0.50

自引率

0.00%

发文量

期刊介绍： History of Economic Ideas is a new international series of Quaderni di storia dell''economia politica, a journal founded in 1983 to promote collaboration between scholars who share an historical approach to the major issues, the various "revolutions" which have left their mark on economics and the spread of economic ideas beyond the narrow circle of specialists. History of Economic Ideas rejects the dichotomy between "analysis" and "culture": both aspects are of equal importance for a wider understanding of the subject. In a period such as our own, where paradigms which once seemed unshakeable are now being challenged, a multidisciplinary analysis of the historical development of economics might contribute to shedding light on the issues at the root of current debate. Besides essays and critical surveys, the journal includes archive material and reviews of new books on history of economics. History of Economic Ideas is double-blind peer reviewed.