北美和澳大利亚森林生物量和碳固存的估计和预测:45年的探索

IF 0.8 4区 农林科学 Q3 MATERIALS SCIENCE, PAPER & WOOD
D. Botkin, M. Ngugi, D. Doley
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引用次数: 2

摘要

本文回顾了半个世纪以来的森林清查研究,包括统计上有效的实地测量(使用统计上具有代表性的样本量并显示置信限)和有效的预测方法。目前的一些程序高估了全球和大规模森林生物量、碳储量和碳固存率,因为它们基于统计上无效的方法(估计误差无法获得且未报告),或者它们没有考虑森林的关键动态特征。有时假定原始森林可以无限期长时间地作为固定的、稳定的生物量和碳储存,但模拟和遥感显示,森林是动态系统,其状态可以在短至十年的时间内发生相当大的变化。预测方法表明,在一些重要的森林类型中,最大生物量和碳储量出现在演替中期,而不是在原生林。因此,建议将用于碳信用额和碳补偿的实际生物量和碳储量估计值确定为统计平均值减去置信区间,并建议实际的碳封存计划包括特定的时间框架,而不是无限期的长时间。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
ESTIMATES AND FORECASTS OF FOREST BIOMASS AND CARBON SEQUESTRATION IN NORTH AMERICA AND AUSTRALIA: A FORTY-FIVE YEAR QUEST
A half-century of forest inventory research involving statistically-valid field measurements (using statistically representative sample size and showing confiden ce limits) and well-validated forecasting methods are reviewed in this paper. Some current procedures overestimate global and large-scale forest biomass, carbon storage, and carbon sequestering rates because they are based on statistically-invalid methods (errors in estimates are unavailable and unreported), or they fail to consider key dynamic characteristics of forests. It is sometimes assumed that old-growth forests can serve as fixed, steady-state storage of biomass and carbon for indefinitely long periods, but it is shown by both modelling and remote sensing that forests are dynamic systems, the state of which can change considerably over as short a time as a decade. Forecasting methods show that maximum biomass and carbon storage in some important forest types occurs in mid-succession, not in old-growth. It is proposed, therefore, that realistic biomass and carbon storage estimates used for carbon credits and offsets be determined as the statistical mean minus the confidence interval and that practical carbon sequestering programs include specific timeframes, not indefinitely long periods of time.
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来源期刊
Drewno
Drewno MATERIALS SCIENCE, PAPER & WOOD-
CiteScore
1.10
自引率
12.50%
发文量
0
审稿时长
>12 weeks
期刊介绍: Wood. Research papers. Reports. Announcements" ("Drewno") is an international scientific journal that publishes original results of innovatory basic and applied research concerning technological, technical, economic and ecological issues important for the wood science and forest-based industries, including their environment, and interesting to the international recipients. "Drewno" is an Open Access biannual journal. Aims and scope: wood science: anatomy, biology, chemistry, physics wood mechanical and chemical technology, inter alia, sawmilling, composite wood products, wooden construction, furniture making, wood pulp, paper making material engineering, biocomposites, nanocomposites material management environmental protection, safety of the processes, products and working stations biotechnology bioenergy, biofuels forestry: harvesting and wood quality wood-based industries economics The Editorial Board of the journal especially welcomes articles concerning increase in wood resources (wood mobilisation); innovative composites and lignocellulosic materials; new trends in the protection, modification and finishing of wood; biorefining of raw wood material; "green" building; new technologies of wood waste recycling; sustainable development; innovation management; and business networks.
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