环境风险变化下蛤蜊养殖盈利能力研究

IF 3.8 2区 经济学 Q1 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY
J. Moor, Andrew Ropicki, T. Garlock
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引用次数: 8

摘要

软体动物是滤食性动物,其生长完全依赖于自然环境。这使得蛤蜊养殖业,以及更普遍的软体动物养殖业,极易受到有害藻华和低盐度事件等环境风险的影响。随着海洋环境的变化,无论是由于气候变化还是与营养有关的变化,可能会出现农民尚未遇到的新的风险组合。为了分析环境风险对墨西哥湾蛤蜊养殖户的财务影响,我们进行了蒙特卡洛实验,改变了不同情景的风险组合和相关性。同时出现的压力源对单个企业产生了重大影响,与没有环境风险的最佳基线情景相比,平均利润下降了71%,内部回报率(IRR)下降了83%,这表明可能需要采取风险缓解策略。虽然我们的分析主要集中在佛罗里达墨西哥湾的蛤蜊养殖户,但所提出的模型适用于全球的软体动物养殖业。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Clam aquaculture profitability under changing environmental risks
Abstract As filter feeders, mollusks’ growth is completely reliant on the natural environment. This leaves clam aquaculture, and more generally molluskan aquaculture, highly susceptible to environmental risks such as harmful algal blooms (HABs) and low salinity events. As marine environments change, whether due to climatic or nutrient related variations, there may be new risk combinations that farmers have yet to encounter. To analyze the financial effects of environmental risks on clam farmers in the Gulf of Mexico, we conducted a Monte–Carlo experiment, varying risk combinations and correlations among scenarios. Simultaneous stressors showed a significant impact on individual firms, decreasing average profit by 71% and internal rate of return (IRR) by 83% when compared to best case baseline scenarios without environmental risk, indicating a potential need for risk mitigation strategies. While our analysis focuses on Florida Gulf of Mexico clam farmers, the model presented is applicable to molluskan aquaculture globally.
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来源期刊
CiteScore
7.30
自引率
17.90%
发文量
21
期刊介绍: Aquaculture Economics and Management is a peer-reviewed, international journal which aims to encourage the application of economic analysis to the management, modeling, and planning of aquaculture in public and private sectors. The journal publishes original, high quality papers related to all aspects of aquaculture economics and management including aquaculture production and farm management, innovation and technology adoption, processing and distribution, marketing, consumer behavior and pricing, international trade, policy analysis, and the role of aquaculture in food security, livelihoods, and environmental management. Papers are peer reviewed and evaluated for their scientific merits and contributions.
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