世界能源新秩序、中东石油与美国能源安全

Xuejun Liu, Lei Wu
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摘要

摘要:50多年来,世界石油版图一直以中东为中心。然而,随着21世纪的到来,新的地图正在出现,从中东转移到西半球。一些分析人士断言,世界能源新版图将改变现有的世界政治秩序,因为世界新版图将削弱中东石油生产国的实力和重要性。此外,随着美国对中东石油的依赖程度降低,美国很可能会相应地调整中东政策。然而,本文的论点是,由于世界上只有一个石油市场,仅凭美国能源安全的改善并不一定会导致全球范围内能源安全的改善,美国也不会自动免受中东石油供应中断和新的世界石油价格危机的影响。相反,中东地缘政治矛盾在结构上是不妥协的,历史上是持久的,这一事实将继续影响中东的石油供应,从而影响美国经济。鉴于中东石油在推动全球经济发展、调节世界地缘政治以及塑造美国能源政策和经济政策方面的重要作用,笔者认为中东石油的大国地位将在未来相当长一段时间内持续存在。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
The Energy New World Order, Mideast Oil and US Energy Security
Abstract: For over five decades, the world’s oil map has centered on the Middle East. However, with the advent of the 21st century, a new map is emerging, shifting from the Middle East to the Western Hemisphere. Some analysts assert that the world energy’s new map will change the existing world political order because the world’s new map will make the Mideast oil producers less powerful and less relevant. Furthermore, as the United States is getting less dependent on Mideast oil, it is most likely to readjust its Mideast policy accordingly. Yet, the argument in this article is that as the world has only one oil market, improved energy security of the United States alone will not necessarily lead to improved energy security on a global scale, nor will the United States automatically become immune to new disruptions of Mideast oil supply and to a new world oil price crisis. Rather, the fact that the Mideast geopolitical contradictions are structurally uncompromising and historically enduring will continue to affect the oil supply from the Middle East and therefore affect the US economy. Given the important role that the Mideast oil plays in boosting the global economy and conditioning world geopolitics, as well as in shaping America’s energy policy and economic policy, the author concludes that the power status of the Mideast oil will persist for quite some time to come.
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