Middle East Upheavals and Democratic Transition of Arab Countries

Abstract: Prior to the Middle East upheavals, democratic transitions in Arab countries could be roughly divided into three stages, namely, the early constitutional reform, the third wave of democratization and democratic reforms under the impact of the end of the Cold War, and during the democratization process under pressure from the US “Greater Middle East” initiative in the new century. The Middle East upheavals are part of political and social movements that involve the whole Arab world. They have not only some common features, but also huge differences; the long-standing problems in Arab countries in the political, economic and social areas are the fundamental causes of Middle East upheavals. However, in addition to this, they are also affected by the US “Greater Middle East” initiative and other external factors. Democratic reforms and transitions undoubtedly constitute an important part of the Middle East upheavals. Arab countries are currently carrying out democratic reforms, but meanwhile they are also facing many challenges. The core elements that affect the progress of democratic transitions include three factors: Islam, military intervention and geopolitical factors. With respect to the relationship between Islam and democratic transition, the conflicts between religious and secular forces will continue to have an impact on the democratic transition of the Arab countries. 0n the other hand, moderate Islamic forces will explore democratization with Islamic characteristics. The relationship between Islam and democracy will be developing in diversified ways, and consecutively adjusting and remodeling. In terms of relationship between military intervention and the democratic transition, there will be a long way to eliminate the impact of military intervention in Arab countries, and a long process from the starting of democracy to democratic consolidation, and eventually to democratic functioning. This also depends on the normalization of relations between religious and secular forces after a long period of interaction and accommodation. On the relationship between geopolitics and democratic transition, complicated internal religious, sectarian and ethnic conflicts, contradictions among Arab countries, ideological competition and regional leadership competition, as well as the military intervention and exports of democracy from Western powers, have exacerbated the turbulence in the Arab democratic transition.