经济不确定性对房地产市场周期的影响

Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance

Journal of Real Estate Portfolio Management Pub Date : 2019-01-01 DOI:10.1080/10835547.2019.12090024

G. Aye, Matthew Clance, Rangan Gupta

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引用次数: 25

摘要

本文考察了经济不确定性对12个经合组织国家房地产市场繁荣、萧条和正常时期持续概率的溢出效应。使用的是1985年至2012年的季度数据。基于离散时间持续时间(风险)模型，我们发现退出房地产市场破裂的概率随着经济不确定性的增加而显著增加。然而，不确定性并没有影响离开繁荣和正常时期的可能性。我们的结果倾向于表明，住房可以作为对不确定性的可能对冲。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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The Effect of Economic Uncertainty on the Housing Market Cycle

This paper examines the spill over effect of economic uncertainty on the duration probability of housing market booms, busts and normal times among 12 OECD countries. Quarterly data from 1985 to 2012 were used. Based on a discrete-time duration (hazard) model, we find that the probability of exiting housing market busts increases with higher economic uncertainty in a statistically significant fashion. Uncertainty, however, is not found to influence the likelihood of leaving booms and normal times. Our results tend to suggest that housing serves as possible hedge against uncertainty.

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来源期刊

Journal of Real Estate Portfolio Management Economics, Econometrics and Finance-Economics, Econometrics and Finance (miscellaneous)

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期刊介绍： The Journal of Real Estate Portfolio Management (JREPM) is a publication of the American Real Estate Society (ARES). Its purpose is to disseminate applied research on real estate investment and portfolio management.