State-Dependent Choice Model for TV Programs with Externality: Analysis of Viewing Behavior

This study analyzes TV program content for viewers with respect to the following three properties: primary utility (intrinsic value by genre, cast, and so on), macro externality, such as the effect of others' past behavior (audience ratings), and state dependence, or the viewer's past actions that determine whether to watch the program. Focusing on the effects of macro externality and state-dependence on viewer behavior, the authors construct a hierarchical Bayesian model and derive an individual utility function. Applying their method to the choice of TV programs in Japan, they estimate the effects of macro externality and state dependence on an individual's viewing behavior, and illustrate the distribution of these effects. The authors find that macro externality has a strong overall effect on the total number of viewers and the state-dependence effect has a slightly positive effect. Moreover, comparing the attributes revealed that male viewers tend to show a lower effect of ratings and higher state dependence than females. They find that the older the viewers are, the higher the effect of state dependence. Further, using utility function data obtained by our estimation, they conduct a simulation to measure the dynamic effects of macro externality and state dependence.