微模拟器的自白:亲属关系人口学建模中的问题。

IF 1.6 2区历史学 Q1 HISTORY

Historical Methods Pub Date : 1993-09-01 DOI:10.1080/01615440.1993.9956352

S. Ruggles

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引用次数: 35

摘要

作者以微观模拟模型为重点，讨论了人口因素对历史亲缘关系模式影响建模所涉及的问题。“由于亲属关系的微观模拟忽略了亲属群体内人口统计学行为的相关性，它们通常低估了亲属关系分布的差异;对于许多亲属类型，他们也低估了预期的亲属数量。”作者的结论是，“那些设计亲属关系人口统计模型的人应该对潜在的系统性错误敏感。”(摘录)

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Confessions of a microsimulator: problems in modeling the demography of kinship.

The author discusses problems involved in modeling the effects of demographic factors on historical kinship patterns with a focus on microsimulation models. "Since microsimulations of kinship ignore the correlations in demographic behavior within kin groups they ordinarily understate the variance of kinship distributions; for many kin types they also underestimate the expected number of kin." The author concludes that "those who design demographic models of kinship should be sensitive to the potential for systematic error." (EXCERPT)

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来源期刊

Historical Methods Multiple-

CiteScore

3.20

自引率

7.10%

发文量

期刊介绍： Historical Methodsreaches an international audience of social scientists concerned with historical problems. It explores interdisciplinary approaches to new data sources, new approaches to older questions and material, and practical discussions of computer and statistical methodology, data collection, and sampling procedures. The journal includes the following features: “Evidence Matters” emphasizes how to find, decipher, and analyze evidence whether or not that evidence is meant to be quantified. “Database Developments” announces major new public databases or large alterations in older ones, discusses innovative ways to organize them, and explains new ways of categorizing information.