{"title":"解释直觉——衡量探索成功的机会","authors":"B. Goldstein","doi":"10.1071/AJ93035","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"There is a 50--50 chance for adequate trap, seal, source, reservoir, and the likelihood for oil. So, the probability for a successful oil find is 3%. A checklist of 33 inquiries is offered as a yardstick for measuring the adequacy of petroleum prospect factor conditions. Each of the inquiries is a part of an overall test that good prospects should pass. Application of the checklist results in probability assignments to the chance for commercial exploration success. The paper discusses exploration forecasts, industry standards, prospect assessment critical paths, historical rates of success, exploration yardsticks, the checklist, applying the checklist, a case study, and its chance for commerciality.","PeriodicalId":19415,"journal":{"name":"Oil & Gas Journal","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.1000,"publicationDate":"1994-12-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"5","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Explicating a gut feel--Benchmarking the chance for exploration success\",\"authors\":\"B. Goldstein\",\"doi\":\"10.1071/AJ93035\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"There is a 50--50 chance for adequate trap, seal, source, reservoir, and the likelihood for oil. So, the probability for a successful oil find is 3%. A checklist of 33 inquiries is offered as a yardstick for measuring the adequacy of petroleum prospect factor conditions. Each of the inquiries is a part of an overall test that good prospects should pass. Application of the checklist results in probability assignments to the chance for commercial exploration success. The paper discusses exploration forecasts, industry standards, prospect assessment critical paths, historical rates of success, exploration yardsticks, the checklist, applying the checklist, a case study, and its chance for commerciality.\",\"PeriodicalId\":19415,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Oil & Gas Journal\",\"volume\":\"1 1\",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.1000,\"publicationDate\":\"1994-12-26\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"5\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Oil & Gas Journal\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"5\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1071/AJ93035\",\"RegionNum\":4,\"RegionCategory\":\"工程技术\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"\",\"JCRName\":\"\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Oil & Gas Journal","FirstCategoryId":"5","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1071/AJ93035","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
Explicating a gut feel--Benchmarking the chance for exploration success
There is a 50--50 chance for adequate trap, seal, source, reservoir, and the likelihood for oil. So, the probability for a successful oil find is 3%. A checklist of 33 inquiries is offered as a yardstick for measuring the adequacy of petroleum prospect factor conditions. Each of the inquiries is a part of an overall test that good prospects should pass. Application of the checklist results in probability assignments to the chance for commercial exploration success. The paper discusses exploration forecasts, industry standards, prospect assessment critical paths, historical rates of success, exploration yardsticks, the checklist, applying the checklist, a case study, and its chance for commerciality.