解释直觉——衡量探索成功的机会

IF 0.1 4区 工程技术
Oil & Gas Journal Pub Date : 1994-12-26 DOI:10.1071/AJ93035
B. Goldstein
{"title":"解释直觉——衡量探索成功的机会","authors":"B. Goldstein","doi":"10.1071/AJ93035","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"There is a 50--50 chance for adequate trap, seal, source, reservoir, and the likelihood for oil. So, the probability for a successful oil find is 3%. A checklist of 33 inquiries is offered as a yardstick for measuring the adequacy of petroleum prospect factor conditions. Each of the inquiries is a part of an overall test that good prospects should pass. Application of the checklist results in probability assignments to the chance for commercial exploration success. The paper discusses exploration forecasts, industry standards, prospect assessment critical paths, historical rates of success, exploration yardsticks, the checklist, applying the checklist, a case study, and its chance for commerciality.","PeriodicalId":19415,"journal":{"name":"Oil & Gas Journal","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.1000,"publicationDate":"1994-12-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"5","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Explicating a gut feel--Benchmarking the chance for exploration success\",\"authors\":\"B. Goldstein\",\"doi\":\"10.1071/AJ93035\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"There is a 50--50 chance for adequate trap, seal, source, reservoir, and the likelihood for oil. So, the probability for a successful oil find is 3%. A checklist of 33 inquiries is offered as a yardstick for measuring the adequacy of petroleum prospect factor conditions. Each of the inquiries is a part of an overall test that good prospects should pass. Application of the checklist results in probability assignments to the chance for commercial exploration success. The paper discusses exploration forecasts, industry standards, prospect assessment critical paths, historical rates of success, exploration yardsticks, the checklist, applying the checklist, a case study, and its chance for commerciality.\",\"PeriodicalId\":19415,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Oil & Gas Journal\",\"volume\":\"1 1\",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.1000,\"publicationDate\":\"1994-12-26\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"5\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Oil & Gas Journal\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"5\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1071/AJ93035\",\"RegionNum\":4,\"RegionCategory\":\"工程技术\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"\",\"JCRName\":\"\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Oil & Gas Journal","FirstCategoryId":"5","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1071/AJ93035","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 5

摘要

找到合适的圈闭、密封、源、储层的几率为50%,找到石油的可能性为50%。因此,成功发现石油的概率是3%。提供了一份包含33个询盘的清单,作为衡量石油前景因素条件是否充足的尺度。每一项调查都是一个整体测试的一部分,好的前景应该通过这个测试。应用清单可以对商业勘探成功的机会进行概率分配。本文讨论了勘探预测、行业标准、前景评估关键路径、历史成功率、勘探标准、清单、应用清单、案例研究及其商业化机会。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Explicating a gut feel--Benchmarking the chance for exploration success
There is a 50--50 chance for adequate trap, seal, source, reservoir, and the likelihood for oil. So, the probability for a successful oil find is 3%. A checklist of 33 inquiries is offered as a yardstick for measuring the adequacy of petroleum prospect factor conditions. Each of the inquiries is a part of an overall test that good prospects should pass. Application of the checklist results in probability assignments to the chance for commercial exploration success. The paper discusses exploration forecasts, industry standards, prospect assessment critical paths, historical rates of success, exploration yardsticks, the checklist, applying the checklist, a case study, and its chance for commerciality.
求助全文
通过发布文献求助,成功后即可免费获取论文全文。 去求助
来源期刊
Oil & Gas Journal
Oil & Gas Journal ENERGY & FUELSENGINEERING, PETROLEUM-ENGINEERING, PETROLEUM
自引率
0.00%
发文量
0
审稿时长
2.7 months
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
确定
请完成安全验证×
copy
已复制链接
快去分享给好友吧!
我知道了
右上角分享
点击右上角分享
0
联系我们:info@booksci.cn Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。 Copyright © 2023 布克学术 All rights reserved.
京ICP备2023020795号-1
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:481959085
Book学术官方微信