S. Cutter, Joseph A. Ahearn, B. Amadei, Patrick Crawford, E. Eide, G. Galloway, M. Goodchild, H. Kunreuther, Meredith Li-Vollmer, M. Schoch-Spana, S. Scrimshaw, Ellis M. Stanley, G. Whitney, M. Zoback
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引用次数: 791
摘要
随着数十亿美元的灾害事件越来越频繁,比如最近的飓风桑迪,凸显了美国在灾害和灾害政策方面面临的一些挑战。美国社会也面临着经济、社会文化和环境系统方面的挑战:全国失业率接近历史高位,超过六分之一的美国人现在生活在贫困中,人口向沿海社区的迁移仍在继续,由于开发、农业实践或工业过程和事故导致的环境退化继续削弱对洪水、风暴潮和野火的自然防御。其中许多变化是变革性的、持久的,再加上国家无法采取果断行动应对气候变化,预示着我们在未来更容易受到多重尺度的危害。在不断变化的气候条件或经济环境和社会条件的变化下,极端自然事件(要么是自然灾害空前的规模或强度,要么是较为常规的灾害所造成的空前后果)可能成为正常现象。1,2低概率/高后果的事件以及地震、流行病和其他类型的灾害等极不可能发生的事件,随着这些事件变得更有可能发生,就会引起更多的政策关注。3-5从政策角度来看,这些不太可能发生的事件构成了重大的风险管理挑战,首先是如何鼓励投资以减轻这些灾难的影响(图1)。作者:Susan L. Cutter, Joseph a . Ahearn, Bernard Amadei, Patrick Crawford, Elizabeth a . Eide, Gerald E. Galloway, Jr. Michael F. Goodchild, Howard C. Kunreuther, Meredith Li-Vollmer, Monica schoech - spana, Susan C. Scrimshaw, Ellis M. Stanley, Sr., Gene Whitney和Mary Lou Zoback
pled with the increasing frequency of billion-dollar disaster events, such as the recent Hurricane Sandy, highlight some of the challenges to hazards and disaster policy in the United States. American society is also facing challenges to its economic, sociocultural, and environmental systems: The national jobless rate is near historic high values, more than one in six Americans now live in poverty, population migration to the coastal communities continues, and environmental degradation due to development, farming practices, or industrial processes and accidents continues to degrade natural defenses against floods, storm surge, and wildfires. Many of these changes are transformative and long lasting and, coupled with the nation’s inability to act decisively to counteract climate change, portend a future where we are more vulnerable to hazards at multiple scales. Extreme natural events (either unprecedented magnitudes or intensities of natural hazards or the unprecedented consequences of more routine hazards) may become normal occurrences under changing climatic conditions or changes in economic circumstances and social conditions.1,2 Low-probability/high-consequence events and highly improbable ones like earthquakes, pandemics, and other kinds of hazards take on more policy interest as these events become more probable.3-5 From a policy perspective, these unlikely events pose significant risk management challenges, starting with how to encourage investments to lessen the impacts of these disasters (Figure 1). by Susan L. Cutter, Joseph A. Ahearn, Bernard Amadei, Patrick Crawford, Elizabeth A. Eide, Gerald E. Galloway, Jr., Michael F. Goodchild, Howard C. Kunreuther, Meredith Li-Vollmer, Monica Schoch-Spana, Susan C. Scrimshaw, Ellis M. Stanley, Sr., Gene Whitney, and Mary Lou Zoback
期刊介绍:
Now in its 60th year of publication, Environment: Science and Policy for Sustainable Development analyzes the problems, places, and people where environment and development come together, illuminating concerns from the local to the global. More readable than specialized journals and more timely than textbooks, Environment offers peer-reviewed articles and commentaries from researchers and practitioners who provide a broad range of international perspectives. This ISI-rated magazine also features in-depth reviews of major policy reports, conferences, and environmental education initiatives, as well as guides to the best Web sites, journal articles, and books.