如何忠于我们的科学:指导我们行为的三个原则

Thomas Zane
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The doctor asked one parent if she used cell phones, to which the parent replied in the affirmative. With a grand wave of the hand, the doctor pronounced, \"throw them out!\" advocating for the unproven belief that the electrical energy emanating from cellular phones was somehow either responsible for or negatively impacting the symptoms of this neurological disorder. When confronted with claims that are presented as true, how can we make a reasonable evaluation to ascertain, as confidently as possible, whether the claim has merit? This fundamental question impacts virtually all areas of our society. Claims abound--of alien abductions, the existence of the Loch Ness monster and Bigfoot, and the eating of wild boar meat to cure autism. How can we \"separate the wheat from the chaff\" in a way that both prevents the acceptance of wildly suspicious claims that have no support, and permits adoption, with some level of certainty and comfort, claims that are likely to in fact be true? The best way known to evaluate claims is to adopt the intellectual discipline of science and the scientific method of investigation. This methodology involves (1) adopting \"philosophic doubt\" or skepticism (e.g., Cooper, Heron, & Heward, 2007) and (2) conducting controlled experiments that (3) minimize threats to internal validity. Practicing skepticism is crucial to protecting oneself from believing unsubstantiated claims. Though the American public views science's effect on society as positive (in a recent survey, 84% of respondents said that the effect of science was mostly positive and that the scientists were ranked as the third-most contributing profession to society, after the military and teachers; American Association for the Advancement of Science, 2009), the continued adoption of unproven beliefs, claims, and bizarre treatments (particularly in the field of autism) remains strong, suggesting that although science is lauded, skepticism--and scientific thinking in general--is not widely practiced. The use of experimentation is the most rigorous of the levels of science (Cooper, et al., 2007), because of the use of systematic manipulation of variables to test the existence of causal relationships. Skepticism is not a view that promotes the disbelief of every truth or claim (Normand, 2008). Skepticism is more refined. 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With a grand wave of the hand, the doctor pronounced, \\\"throw them out!\\\" advocating for the unproven belief that the electrical energy emanating from cellular phones was somehow either responsible for or negatively impacting the symptoms of this neurological disorder. When confronted with claims that are presented as true, how can we make a reasonable evaluation to ascertain, as confidently as possible, whether the claim has merit? This fundamental question impacts virtually all areas of our society. Claims abound--of alien abductions, the existence of the Loch Ness monster and Bigfoot, and the eating of wild boar meat to cure autism. How can we \\\"separate the wheat from the chaff\\\" in a way that both prevents the acceptance of wildly suspicious claims that have no support, and permits adoption, with some level of certainty and comfort, claims that are likely to in fact be true? 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Though the American public views science's effect on society as positive (in a recent survey, 84% of respondents said that the effect of science was mostly positive and that the scientists were ranked as the third-most contributing profession to society, after the military and teachers; American Association for the Advancement of Science, 2009), the continued adoption of unproven beliefs, claims, and bizarre treatments (particularly in the field of autism) remains strong, suggesting that although science is lauded, skepticism--and scientific thinking in general--is not widely practiced. The use of experimentation is the most rigorous of the levels of science (Cooper, et al., 2007), because of the use of systematic manipulation of variables to test the existence of causal relationships. Skepticism is not a view that promotes the disbelief of every truth or claim (Normand, 2008). Skepticism is more refined. 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引用次数: 1

摘要

象牙嘴啄木鸟(Campephilus principalis)最后一次被发现是在1944年。出乎意料的是,2004年,据说有人在阿肯色州布林克利附近看到了它。这一说法导致了一次科学考察,制作了一个不确定的视频,用来证实这种鸟从灭绝中复活,科学杂志上的一篇文章颂扬了这种鸟确实回来的兴奋,以及全世界对这种被认为已经灭绝的物种的迷恋,但现在又出现了。然而,尽管花费了5年多的时间,花费了1000多万美元,仍然没有物理证据证明啄木鸟实际上是活着的(Radford, 2009)。在2004年佛罗里达关于自闭症谱系障碍(ASD)治疗的会议上,一位医生向一群家长讲述了电磁场及其对自闭症的影响。医生问其中一位家长是否使用手机,这位家长回答说使用了。医生挥了挥手,大声说:“把它们扔出去!”这是一种未经证实的信念,即手机发出的电能在某种程度上导致了这种神经系统疾病的症状,或者对这种症状产生了负面影响。当面对看似真实的说法时,我们如何才能做出合理的评估,以尽可能自信地确定这种说法是否有价值?这个基本问题几乎影响到我们社会的所有领域。关于外星人绑架,尼斯湖水怪和大脚怪的存在,以及吃野猪肉来治疗自闭症的说法比比皆是。我们如何才能“去芜存草”,既能防止人们接受毫无根据的可疑言论,又能在一定程度上确定和舒适地接受实际上可能是真实的言论?评估索赔的最佳方法是采用科学的知识纪律和科学的调查方法。这种方法包括:(1)采用“哲学怀疑”或怀疑主义(例如,Cooper, Heron, & Heward, 2007)和(2)进行对照实验,(3)最大限度地减少对内部有效性的威胁。练习怀疑对于保护自己不相信未经证实的说法至关重要。尽管美国公众认为科学对社会的影响是积极的(在最近的一项调查中,84%的受访者表示科学的影响大多是积极的,科学家被列为对社会贡献最大的第三大职业,仅次于军队和教师;美国科学促进会(American Association for Advancement of Science, 2009)的报告)中,对未经证实的信念、主张和怪异疗法(尤其是在自闭症领域)的持续接受仍然很强烈,这表明尽管科学受到称赞,但怀疑主义——以及一般的科学思维——并没有得到广泛的实践。实验的使用是科学水平中最严格的(Cooper, et al., 2007),因为使用系统的变量操作来测试因果关系的存在。怀疑主义并不是一种提倡不相信每一个真理或主张的观点(诺曼德,2008)。怀疑主义则更为精致。Merriam-Webster Online(2010)将其定义为“一种态度、怀疑或倾向于怀疑,无论是对一般的还是对特定的对象。”这个词来自希腊语“skeptikos”,意思是“询问者”或“调查者”(DiCarlo, 2009)。Pigliucci(2009)将怀疑论定义为在充分的证据被检验之前暂停判断(要么采纳要么拒绝)。Kurtz(2010)在他的“怀疑性调查”讨论中强调了这一观点,这种方法促使审查员“……在可行的情况下,为任何背景下的任何真理主张寻求充分的证据和合理的依据”。(第21页,引用自Normand, 2008)。在采纳或拒绝各种主张之前,应审查支持其证据的数量和质量。…
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
How to Stay True to Our Science: Three Principles to Guide Our Behavior
The ivory-billed woodpecker (Campephilus principalis) was last known to exist in 1944. Unexpectedly, in 2004, it was purportedly seen near Brinkley, Arkansas. This claim resulted in a scientific expedition that produced an inconclusive video that was used to confirm the bird's reemergence from extinction, an article in Science magazine extolling the excitement that the bird was indeed back, and a worldwide fascination towards a species supposedly extinct but now here again. Yet, despite over 5 years of searching at a cost of over $10 million, there remains no physical proof that the woodpecker is in fact alive (Radford, 2009). At a 2004 Florida conference about treatment for Autism Spectrum Disorders (ASD), a medical doctor spoke to a group of parents about electromagnetic fields and their impact on autism. The doctor asked one parent if she used cell phones, to which the parent replied in the affirmative. With a grand wave of the hand, the doctor pronounced, "throw them out!" advocating for the unproven belief that the electrical energy emanating from cellular phones was somehow either responsible for or negatively impacting the symptoms of this neurological disorder. When confronted with claims that are presented as true, how can we make a reasonable evaluation to ascertain, as confidently as possible, whether the claim has merit? This fundamental question impacts virtually all areas of our society. Claims abound--of alien abductions, the existence of the Loch Ness monster and Bigfoot, and the eating of wild boar meat to cure autism. How can we "separate the wheat from the chaff" in a way that both prevents the acceptance of wildly suspicious claims that have no support, and permits adoption, with some level of certainty and comfort, claims that are likely to in fact be true? The best way known to evaluate claims is to adopt the intellectual discipline of science and the scientific method of investigation. This methodology involves (1) adopting "philosophic doubt" or skepticism (e.g., Cooper, Heron, & Heward, 2007) and (2) conducting controlled experiments that (3) minimize threats to internal validity. Practicing skepticism is crucial to protecting oneself from believing unsubstantiated claims. Though the American public views science's effect on society as positive (in a recent survey, 84% of respondents said that the effect of science was mostly positive and that the scientists were ranked as the third-most contributing profession to society, after the military and teachers; American Association for the Advancement of Science, 2009), the continued adoption of unproven beliefs, claims, and bizarre treatments (particularly in the field of autism) remains strong, suggesting that although science is lauded, skepticism--and scientific thinking in general--is not widely practiced. The use of experimentation is the most rigorous of the levels of science (Cooper, et al., 2007), because of the use of systematic manipulation of variables to test the existence of causal relationships. Skepticism is not a view that promotes the disbelief of every truth or claim (Normand, 2008). Skepticism is more refined. Merriam-Webster Online (2010) defines it as, "an attitude or doubt or a disposition to incredulity either in general or towards a particular object." The word is from the Greek "skeptikos," meaning "inquirer" or "investigator" (DiCarlo, 2009). Pigliucci (2009) defines skepticism closer to the original Greek meaning as the suspension of judgment (either to adopt or reject) until sufficient evidence is examined. Kurtz (2010) stresses this perspective with his discussion of "skeptical inquiry," an approach that promotes the examiner to ".. .seek, when feasible, adequate evidence and reasonable grounds for any claim to truth in any context." (p. 21, as quoted in Normand, 2008). Claims of all kinds should be, before adoption or rejection, examined for the amount and quality of evidence that supports them. …
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