Nomograms for clinically localized disease. Part III: watchful waiting.

Patients with newly diagnosed, clinically localized prostate cancer need information concerning long-term outcomes to make informed decisions regarding treatment options. Several nomograms have been developed that can help in this decision process. By using a nomogram originally published in 1998, patients and clinicians can predict the 15-year clinical outcomes in the absence of aggressive treatment based on age and Gleason score at diagnosis. These predictions are based on patients diagnosed and treated before the routine use of PSA that has accelerated the diagnosis of prostate cancer by at least 5 years. Longer follow-up of contemporary patients will determine whether this nomogram remains accurate in the prostate-specific antigen (PSA) era. In view of the lead-time bias resulting from PSA testing, the outcomes of contemporary patients are likely to be better rather than worse than the results shown.