COVID-19 and economic recovery with effective climate mitigation

Non-technical summary A small benefit of the disastrous COVID-19 pandemic has been the temporary reduction in greenhouse gas emissions. Therefore, this paper asks: what strategies can return people to work without returning to the old high-emissions economy? How can we modify the old economic system to reduce environmental impacts while rebuilding employment? Technological change, such as replacing fossil fuels with renewable energy (RE), is necessary but, in an economy that's growing, unlikely to be sufficiently rapid to avoid dangerous climate change. Degrowth in physical consumption, especially by the ‘rich’ 10%, towards a steady-state economy, is needed as well as low-carbon jobs. Technical summary In planning recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic, most governments aim to return to economic growth that, by default, is closely coupled to growth in consumption of energy, materials and land, together with growth in population in some countries. This scenario almost certainly forecloses the option of a smooth transition to a climate in which global heating is limited to 1.5°C above the pre-industrial level, the aspirational Paris target. Although the transition to energy efficiency and 100% RE – based mainly on wind, solar and hydro – is now technically feasible, affordable and progressing in some countries, states, cities and businesses, technological transformation would be chasing a retreating goal if economic growth returns. Even to stay below 2°C, reducing consumption, especially by the rich 10%, is needed as well as technology change. Therefore, we explore a pandemic recovery scenario in which low-carbon employment creation is fostered during a process of general degrowth, in biophysical terms, towards an ecologically sustainable steady-state economy. Strategies are suggested for governments to create low-carbon jobs, together with reduced consumption, and to drive and finance the transition. With strong public pressure on governments and business, a 2°C target without overshoot may still be possible. Social media summary Degrowth can be combined with green employment to cut emissions while improving social equity.