不确定性带来的新闻不对称效应

IF 0.7 4区经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS

Macroeconomic Dynamics Pub Date : 2023-02-15 DOI:10.1017/s1365100522000736

Mario Forni, Luca Gambetti, Luca Sala

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引用次数: 2

摘要

关于未来经济发展的坏消息比好消息影响更大。通过基于SVAR和SVARX模型的简单非线性方法获得了结果。我们将这种不对称性解释为经济事件的不确定性，这些事件的影响是无法完全预测的。不确定性对经济产生不利影响，放大坏消息的影响，减轻好消息的影响。

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Asymmetric effects of news through uncertainty

Bad news about future economic developments have larger effects than good news. The result is obtained by means of a simple nonlinear approach based on SVAR and SVARX models. We interpret the asymmetry as arising from the uncertainty surrounding economic events whose effects are not perfectly predictable. Uncertainty generates adverse effects on the economy, amplifying the effects of bad news and mitigating the effects of good news.

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来源期刊

Macroeconomic Dynamics ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

2.10

自引率

11.10%

发文量

期刊介绍： Macroeconomic Dynamics publishes theoretical, empirical or quantitative research of the highest standard. Papers are welcomed from all areas of macroeconomics and from all parts of the world. Major advances in macroeconomics without immediate policy applications will also be accepted, if they show potential for application in the future. Occasional book reviews, announcements, conference proceedings, special issues, interviews, dialogues, and surveys are also published.