利用分布式水文模型分析气候变化对埃塞拉河流域(西班牙)沉积物循环的影响

IF 0.2 Q4 WATER RESOURCES
F. Francés , G. Bussi
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引用次数: 5

摘要

本研究将分布式水文与沉积模型TETIS应用于Ésera河流域(西班牙)。本研究的目的是分析气候变化对流域泥沙动态的影响以及排水的Barasona水库的淤积。泥沙子模型的实现以水库沉积的泥沙体积为参考,并以三个历史水深测量值为参考。为了分析气候变化的影响,我们使用PRUDENCE项目获得的当前和未来A2和B2气候情景的降水和温度序列作为模式输入。从TETIS的模拟结果可以得出,由于降水减少、潜在蒸散量增加和流域土壤湿度降低,径流在未来有减少的趋势。尽管暴雨有增加的趋势,但模式结果表明,由于前面提到的土壤湿度大幅减少,A2情景的洪水也将趋于减少,减少幅度比B2情景更明显。A2情景输沙量减少,B2情景输沙量增加。这种情况反映在Barasona水库的淤积率上,与当前气候条件相比,B2级预计没有实质性变化,而A2级预计使用寿命将明显延长。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Análisis del impacto del cambio climático en el ciclo de sedimentos de la cuenca del río Ésera (España) mediante un modelo hidrológico distribuido

In this study, the distributed hydrological and sedimentological model TETIS was applied in the Ésera River catchment (Spain). The aim of this study was to analyze the effect of Climate Change on the sediment dynamics in the catchment and the siltation of Barasona reservoir that drains it. The implementation of the sediment sub-model was performed using the volumes of sediment deposited in the reservoir and measured from three historical bathymetries as reference. To analyze the effects of Climate Change, the precipitation and temperature series obtained from the PRUDENCE project, for the current and future A2 and B2 climate scenarios have been used as model inputs. From the results of the simulations with TETIS, it can be concluded that the flow discharges tend to decrease in the future as a direct result of reduced precipitation, increased potential evapotranspiration and reduced soil moisture within the catchment. Despite the trend towards more torrential rainfall, model results indicate that floods will also tend to decrease, more markedly for the A2 scenario than for the B2 scenario, due to the large decrease in soil moisture already mentioned. Moreover, sediment transport tends to decrease for the A2 and increase for the B2 scenario. This situation is reflected in the siltation rates of Barasona reservoir, wherein for B2 no substantial changes are expected, as compared to the situation of the current climate condition, whereas for the A2 scenario a significantly longer service life is expected.

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