日常决策中的主观评价和资源分配

Gerry Gingrich, Sigfrid D. Soli
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引用次数: 15

摘要

日常决策是一个确定目标、评估备选方案和制定实现这些目标的适当策略的过程。这一过程的后两个阶段在两个部分的实验中进行了检验。在第一部分中,受试者衡量实现目标所需资源的不同组合。结果表明,明确的目标直接影响资源的利用。从本质上讲,平均效用相当于成本效益分析的点估计。在第二部分中,受试者执行决策任务,分配初始资源组合以实现明确定义的目标。利用线性规划技术对任务绩效进行建模,为评估被试的决策、资源分配和策略制定过程提供了一种手段。结果表明,尽管在实验的第一部分,所有的被试都适当地衡量了这些资源的效用,但在12个被试中,只有1个被试在做决策时分配了最佳的资源。此外,一半的受试者在做决定时未能最大限度地利用可用资源。这一结果在日常决策过程的记忆和注意力限制方面进行了讨论。结果表明,这些限制在战略制定时最为严重,即使资源的效用和明确的目标是已知的。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Subjective evaluation and allocation of resources in routine decision making

Routine decision making is a process of identifying goals, evaluating alternatives, and formulating appropriate strategies for attaining these goals. The latter two stages of this process were examined in a two-part experiment. In the first part, subjects scaled alternative combinations of the resources required for goal attainment. The results showed that an explicitly defined goal directly influenced the utility of resources. In essence, mean utilities were equivalent to point estimates of cost-benefit analyses. In the second part, subjects performed a decision-making task, allocating the initial resource combinations to achieve an explicitly defined goal. Task performance was modeled with linear programming techniques which provide a means of evaluating both the subjects' decisions and the process of resource allocation and strategy formulation. Results indicated that only 1 of 12 subjects allocated resources optimally in making decisions, even though all of the subjects had appropriately scaled the utility of these resources in the first part of the experiment. Moreover, half the subjects failed to utilize the maximum available resources in making their decisions. This outcome is discussed in terms of the memory and attentional constraints on routine decision-making processes. The results suggest that these constraints are most severe at the time of strategy formulation, even when the utility of resources and the explicit goal are known.

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