Sensitivity of tropospheric oxidants to global chemical and climate change

A photochemical model has been used to quantify the sensitivity of the tropospheric oxidants O₃ and OH to changes in CH₄, CO and NO emissions and to perturbations in climate and stratospheric chemistry. Coefficients of the form ∂1n[O₃]/∂1n[X] and ∂1n[OH]/∂1n[X], where [X] = flux of CH₄, CO, NO; stratospheric O₃ and H₂O have been calculated for a number of “chemically coherent” regions (e.g. nonpolluted continental, nonpolluted marine, urban) at low and middle latitudes. Sensitivities in O₃ and OH vary with regional emissions patterns and are nonlinear within a given region as [X] changes. In most cases increasing CH₄ and CO emissions will suppress OH (negative coefficients) and increase O₃ (positive coefficients) except in areas where NO and O₃ influenced by pollution are sufficient to increase OH. Stratospheric O₃ depletion will tend to decrease O₃ (except in high NO_x areas) and increase OH through enhanced u.v. photolysis. Increased levels of water vapor (one possible outcome of a global warming) will also decrease O₃ and increase OH. We conclude that in most regions, NO, CO and CH₄ emission increases will suppress OH and increase O₃, but these trends may be opposed by stratospheric O₃ depletion and climate change. A regional survey of OH and O₃ levels suggests that the tropics have a pivotal role in determining the earth's future oxidizing capacity.