Can China get out of soy dilemma? A yield gap analysis of soybean in China

China is the largest soybean-consuming country in the world, but its self-sufficiency rate (SSR) of 16% is very low and it therefore has to heavily rely on imports. To solve the soybean dilemma in China, it is necessary to examine the maximum amount of soybean that could be grown on the land currently used, how much land could reasonably be used to expand soybean acreage, and whether China could sustainably increase soybean self-sufficiency to reduce the risks of import reliance. To answer these questions, our paper presents a high-resolution spatial analysis of potential soybean production in China using primary data of weather and crop production practices that govern this potential. We employed a “bottom-up” scaling protocol to estimate gaps between potential yield with optimal management and current yields in three major soybean-planting regions, namely, Northeast China, Central China, and South China. We found that current soybean yield gap (Yg) in China is 49% and 45% of potential yield under irrigated and rainfed cropping systems, respectively. By closing the yield gap, Northeast China could provide additional soybean production equivalent to 32% of the current national total. Our results show that SSR could only be increased to 21–23% in 2030 by Yg closure alone but could be increased to a maximum of 52% by combining Yg closure and a reasonable area expansion. Even so, at least 61.08 million tons of soybean accounting for 38% of global soybean trade would still need to be imported to meet future domestic demand. We discuss strategies for soybean production increase based on Yg closure in the most valuable areas and cropland expansion in a sustainable manner in order to increase SSR as well as lessen the import pressure on the global market.