评估区域全面经济伙伴关系的经济影响

Carmen Estrades , Maryla Maliszewska , Israel Osorio-Rodarte , Maria Seara e Pereira
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本文将ENVISAGE可计算一般均衡模型与微观模拟联系起来,评估实施区域全面经济伙伴关系协定(RCEP)的经济效果。降低关税和非关税措施,实施原产地规则,以及贸易成本降低带来的生产力提高,加强了RCEP成员国之间的区域贸易。分析表明,关税自由化本身带来的好处很小,2035年的实际收入比基线(没有RCEP)增长了0.21%。在自由的原产地规则下,实际收入的增长可能会翻倍,达到0.49%。考虑到生产率的提高,最大的好处会产生,2035年RCEP成员国之间的实际收入比基准增长2.5%,贸易增长12.3%。RCEP有可能在2035年前使2700万人成为中产阶级。这些综合效应掩盖了各国的各种结果。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Estimating the economic impacts of the regional comprehensive economic partnership

This paper links the ENVISAGE computable general equilibrium model with a microsimulation to assess the economic effects of implementing the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). Reductions of tariffs and non-tariff measures, implementation of a rule of origin, together with productivity gains stemming from trade cost reductions strengthens regional trade among RCEP members. The analysis indicate that tariff liberalization alone brings little benefit, with real income gains of 0.21 percent relative to the baseline (without the RCEP) in 2035. With liberal rules of origin, the gains in real income could double to 0.49 percent. The biggest benefits accrue when the productivity gains are considered, increasing real income by 2.5 percent and trade among RCEP members by 12.3 percent in 2035 relative to the baseline. RCEP has the potential to lift 27 million additional people to middle-class status by 2035. These aggregate effects mask large variety of outcomes across countries.

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